Pigskins and Ponies: NFL Top Play, Stakes Single at Aqueduct

Gambling
Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing

If you like betting both football and horse racing, you've come to the right place!

Each week in Pigskins and Ponies you'll find analysis and key football bets from Payne Insider and Todd Fuhrman plus racing picks from Jose Contreras.

Professional bettor Payne Insider and former oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman are founders of Bet the Board, a cutting edge sports betting company focused on written and digital content. You can listen to Bet The Board podcast every Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday during football season on iTunes and Soundcloud.

Handicapper Jose Contreras is an analyst for horse racing network TVG and a regular contributor to America's Best Racing.

Get this week's picks below, and be sure to check back for new selections each week. Happy betting!


Pigskins

Texas A&M +14 (-115) @ Georgia:

With the total dropping to 44, playing a team as talented as the Aggies at two full touchdowns is the way we’re going to go. No doubt Georgia is a force to be reckoned with, but A&M should provide enough resistance up front on the defensive end, as well as some key-quarterback play from Kellen Mond should keep this close late. If Mond and RB Isaiah Spiller can put 14+ points on the board, that should be enough for the cover. Georgia has played three Top 25-caliber teams in Notre Dame, Florida, and Auburn, and all of those games were decided by seven points or less. We know Georgia plays slow, we know Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher likes to play slow, grab the Aggies +14.

Cal +3 (-120) @ Stanford:  

Is Cal QB Chase Garbers starting? Or will it be Devon Modster? It doesn’t matter, we like the Bears to not only cover, but win outright! Stanford doesn’t have the offensive firepower that seems to be California’s kryptonite, as USC’s wide receivers proved last week. California is still eligible for a bowl, while Stanford is stumbling to the finish line. To make matters worse, the Cardinals will be without starting QB K.J. Costello, all-conference CB Paulson Adebo, and starting S Malik Antoine. Look for this Cal defense to smother Stanford’s offense, creating shorter fields for the Cal offense. Take +3 in the “Big Game” with the Golden Bears.

Denver +4 (-106) @ Buffalo:

Buffalo has the appearance of an elite defense, but whenever they’ve faced even a half-capable running attack, they have been gashed on the ground. Denver is 10th in rushing efficiency and that’s against the 11th-toughest slate of defenses. Buffalo ranks 27th in defensive rush efficiency, and that’s against the EASIEST slate of opposing rush offenses. This Denver defense has improved throughout the season as they gain an understanding of Vic Fangio’s schemes, and they have the pieces across all three levels of the defense to give the Bills fits. Grab Denver +4 before this line drops on gameday.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta Over 51 (-110):

This total opened 54.5 at FoxBet.com, and here it sits 51. We get it, the Falcons defense has showed “some” improvement as it pertains to the scoreboard, but the metrics still show a below-average defense that’s let up more than 660 yards of offense over the past two weeks. Tampa’s secondary is still bottom of the barrel, and Matt Ryan and this wide-receiving core is starting to cook. If one team gets out to a 10-14 point lead, we could see this game really open up. Both passing defenses are bottom five in overall efficiency. With no weather to worry about in the confines of the cozy dome where Matty Ice operates best, let’s go against the line move and look over here at the key number of 51.

Best Bet: [253] Denver Broncos +4 (-110)


Ponies

For this series, I will be looking for one key horse to single in a pick-3 in hopes of cashing a profitable exotic wager. The budget will be in the $20 range and will keep track of ROI each week. This week’s key horse:

Saturday, Nov. 23

Aqueduct, Race 9, Grade 3 Red Smith Stakes, 3:47 p.m. ET

#7 Sadler’s Joy: He has been unable to get a win in three starts this year but all three efforts have been solid. He’s got plenty of experience at this distance and his closing style seems to be a good fit in this field. There are a number of runners in this group that could keep the pace honest up front. He’s a 6-year-old who has earned more than $2.3 million, and I like that they gave him more than a month off since his last effort. This looks to be a good spot to get him that first win of the year.

$1 Pick 3 ticket:

Race 8: 4,5,7,8,10

Race 9: 7

Race 10: 2,5,9,10

Total: $20

Total wagered: $240

Total returned: $0


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