Pigskins and Ponies: Identifying Undervalued Teams, Turf Pick at Del Mar

Gambling
Eclipse Sportswire

If you like betting both football and horse racing, you've come to the right place!

Each week in Pigskins and Ponies you'll find analysis and key football bets from Payne Insider and Todd Fuhrman plus racing picks from Jose Contreras.

Professional bettor Payne Insider and former oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman are founders of Bet the Board, a cutting edge sports betting company focused on written and digital content. You can listen to Bet The Board podcast every Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday during football season on iTunes and Soundcloud.

Handicapper Jose Contreras is an analyst for horse racing network TVG and a regular contributor to America's Best Racing.

Get this week's picks below, and be sure to check back for new selections each week. Happy betting!


Pigskins

Louisville +7 (-115) @ Miami Florida:

Miami went to Florida State and got the biggest win of its season Saturday against their hated rival; now they return home to face a Louisville squad of a bye. This line opened Miami -5 (closer to our true number), and has seen a move toward the favorite, but every time this has touched 7, it just hasn’t lasted. Head coach Scott Satterfield has impressed this season leading Louisville to five wins and the Cardinals are a game away from bowl eligibility. With the extra prep time and a creative offensive mind, the ’Ville should be able to do enough against this Canes defense to get the cover. On the other side of the ball, Louisville’s biggest weakness is stopping the run, but that’s not where Miami succeeds on offense. Grab the full Touchdown on the cheap buy to +7!

Kansas State @ Texas -6.5 (-115): 

Kansas State in its current form could be the most overrated team in college football, and despite their No. 16 rating in the AP Poll, the Wildcats are a net negative -0.6 yards per play. K-State is outside the Top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and is down its best cornerback in AJ Parker. Texas, on the other hand, is returning multiple starters in its secondary plus freshman stud RB Jordan Whittington. Texas can move the ball, and QB Sam Ehlinger should have real success against this Kansas State defense that is 86th in yards per play allowed. This line opened -5 at FoxBet.com, and has moved out to a juiced -6.5/-7. Off of a bye, we think the Longhorns should get the job done. Sell the Wildcats and buy Texas.

Buffalo @ Cleveland -2.5 (-120):

Is there another team in the NFL that is thought less of at the current moment than the Cleveland Browns? Yet this 2-6 team is favored against the 6-2 Buffalo Bills? The weakness of the Bills is obvious, and it’s the run defense. It’s so obvious, that Buffalo signed veteran free agent defensive tackle Corey Liuget on Tuesday. Cleveland should have success on the ground against Buffalo’s 30th-ranked explosive run defense and overall rush defense, and now the Browns have both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield. The sports betting market will give you clues if you know where to look, and the Browns being favored here should tell you all you need to know.  

Baltimore @ Cincinnati +10.5 (-110):

If the Browns aren’t the lowest stock in the NFL, the Bengals might be. They’re switching signal callers, going with the rookie Ryan Finley. It’s unclear if A. J. Green will make his season debut, but he would only be a bonus. Think about this line, back in Week 6 Cincinnati traveled to Baltimore, where the Ravens closed 10-point favorites. Now, after a win in front of a national audience on Sunday Night Football, we’ve seen the same point tick up despite the change of venue. Baltimore has played the fifth-easiest schedule of opposing defenses this year, and the eighth-easiest opposing offenses. Will there be a let-down here for Baltimore? These are the type of wagers that you close your eyes and click submit, because it’s a pure value play.

Best Bet: [125] Louisville +7 (-115)


Ponies

For this series, I will be looking for one key horse to single in a pick-3 in hopes of cashing a profitable exotic wager. The budget will be in the $20 range and will keep track of ROI each week. This week’s key horse:

Saturday, Nov. 9

Del Mar, Race 8, Let It Ride Stakes, 7 p.m. ET

#6 Carnivorous: He cut back to a sprint and won nicely at Santa Anita in a race where these connections dropped a claim for $80,000 to acquire him. If you ignore his dirt outings, he’s got a 3-for-8 record on the turf, including two wins in three tries on this Del Mar turf course. Three starts ago, he battled gamely to win by a nose over Mo Forza, who returned to win the Grade 2 Qatar Twilight Derby on the Breeders’ Cup Saturday undercard. I think he’s going to get a good, stalking trip following Bob and Jackie, who is coming off a long layoff.

$1 Pick-3 ticket:

Race 7: 1,2,4,5

Race 8: 6

Race 9: 2,3,5,6,8

Total: $20

Total wagered: $220

Total returned: $0

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