Dan’s Double of the Week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!

Saturday, Oct. 5  

Keeneland Race Course, Race 8, $400,000 First Lady Stakes, 5:04 p.m. ET

#9 Simply Breathless: This is a deep and extremely talented field. The favorite #11 Rushing Fall (4-for-4 at Keeneland) is always on or near the lead but she’ll have to be used early to get there. She has speedy filly #12 Ms Bad Behavior to her outside and another fast horse #3 Juliet Foxtrot drawn down near the rail. Assuming the pace will be honest, I landed on the stalking Simply Breathless. She beat a nice group back in June at Santa Anita going a mile. In her next race, she lacked a bit of late punch but she was stretching out there to a mile and three sixteenths. Last out at Kentucky Downs, Ms Bad Behavior walked the dog on the front end, and ran one-two all the way around with #8 Mitchell Road. I think with more pace here, Simply Breathless becomes a lot more dangerous.

$10 Budget 

$2 win, place and show on #9 Simply Breathless ($6)

$1 exacta 4,9 with 4,9,11 ($4)

$25 Budget 

$4 win, place and show on #9 Simply Breathless ($12)

$1 exacta box 4,9,11 ($6)

$.50 trifecta 4,9 with 4,9,11 with 4,6,9,10,11 ($6)

$50 Budget 

$8 win, place and show on #9 Simply Breathless ($24)

$2 exacta box 4,9,11 ($12)

$.50 trifecta 4,9 with 4,6,9,10,11 with 4,6,9,10,11 ($12)

Keeneland Race Course, Race 10, $1 million Shadwell Turf Mile, 6:15 p.m. ET

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#14 Real Story: Here’s another longshot that I like, but for the complete opposite reason to my pick in the First Lady. Though this Shadwell Turf field is also large and talented, there isn’t nearly as much speed signed up for this race. From the wide draw, Real Story has no choice but to go early, and he should possess enough early foot to open up some daylight on the most logical front-runners, including #3 Bandua (and #7 Diamond Oops, if he doesn’t run on Friday when he’s cross-entered in the Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes). Real Story seems to have come into his own in recent months, and although he’s gotten his wins against softer company, he has performed well enough in graded stakes races to think he can take this next step if the pace up front is soft enough.

$10 Budget 

$1 exacta key box 14 with 6,8,9,11,13 ($10)

$25 Budget 

$4 win, place and show on #14 Real Story ($12)

$1 exacta 8,14 with 3,6,8,9,11,13,14 ($12)

$50 Budget 

$10 win, place and show on #14 Real Story ($30)

$1 exacta 8,14 with 3,6,8,9,11,13,14 ($12)

$.50 trifecta 14 over 6,8,9 with 6,8,9,11,13 ($7.50)

Last Week’s Earnings: $101.80

Year-to-Date Earnings: $5,319.81