Dan's Double: Stars and Stripes Day Picks

Gambling
Eclipse Sportswire

Dan’s Double of the Week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!


Saturday, July 6

Belmont Park, Race 8, $300,000 John A. Nerud Stakes, 5:05 p.m. ET

#8 Pat On the BackWe’re going to try to catch a price here with a bit of an outsider who hasn’t had as much experience in this kind of company. On class alone, #9 Promises Fulfilled is a standout (on paper, at least), followed by battle-tested foes like #3 Warrior’s Club and #7 Do Share. Even though Promises Fulfilled figures to appreciate the cutback in distance here, he’ll likely have to work a bit to get over and get to the lead with the presence of Killybegs Captain. I’m gonna look for him to be softened up a bit early and hope that Pat On the Back can enjoy a nice stalking trip and then pounce late.

Based on his Beyer Speed Figures and Equibase numbers going up against state-bred stakes company, there’s an argument to be made that Pat On the Back is capable of elevating to low-100 Beyer level on the step up in class — that’s probably what he’d need to win here. His only other time tested in this kind of company was the Grade 1 Cigar Mile and he posted a 99 when sitting off a loose pacesetter who drew off to win. With the pacesetter on Saturday likely to face more pressure, there’s every reason to think that Pat On the Back could enjoy a more advantageous setup.

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$2 win, place, and show on #8 Pat On the Back ($6)

$1 exacta 2,8 with 2,8,9 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget 

$4 win, place, and show on #8 Pat On the Back ($12)

$1 exacta box 2,8,9 ($6)

$1 trifecta box 2,8,9 ($6)

Strategy on a $50 Budget 

$8 win, place, and show on #8 Pat On the Back ($24)

$1 exacta box 2,8,9 ($6)

$1 trifecta box 2,8,9 ($6)

$1 trifecta 2,8 with 2,3,8,9 with 2,3,8,9 ($12)

$1 trifecta 9 with 2,3 with 2,3,8 ($4)

Belmont Park, Race 11, 6:50 p.m. ET

#2 Ledecka: I am highly intrigued by this filly who’ll be making her third career start. After coming up just short as a favorite on debut last August at Laurel, she came back with a strong runner-up finish in May at Pimlico when she was on Lasix for the first time. She’s caught wet ground in both of her first two starts. If she can move up at all over firm ground on Saturday, she’ll be a force in here. I like seeing Julien Leparoux hop aboard for the first time. He’s a turf specialist and can move up a young horse like this on the grass. Trainer Arnaud Delacour does very well in these spots — he’s won with 23% of his starters in maiden special weight company when going long on the turf off of a layoff of 45 days or more.

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$1 exacta key box 2 with 1,3,6,9,11 ($10)

Strategy on a $25 Budget 

$5 win, place, and show on #2 Ledecka ($15)

$1 exacta key box 2 with 1,3,6,9,11 ($10)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$5 win, place, and show on #2 Ledecka ($15)

$2 exacta key box 2 with 1,3,6,9,11 ($20)

$1 trifecta 2 with 1,6,11 with 1,3,6,9,10,11 ($15)

Last Week’s Earnings: $0

Year-to-Date Earnings: $3,136.81

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