Dan's Double: Stakes Upsets in New Orleans

Eclipse Sportswire

Dan’s Double of the Week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!

Saturday, March 23

Fair Grounds, Race 12, $400,000 Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks, 5:44 p.m. ET

#8 Liora: Despite losing by more than four lengths to returning foe (and likely favorite here) Serengeti Empress, Liora ran a massive race last out in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes. What’s important to note about that race is that Serengeti Empress was totally loose on the lead — a filly of her caliber is going to be nearly impossible to catch late if she doesn’t face some head-to-head pace contact earlier in the race. Liora sat a stalking trip in which she covered more ground than Street Band and Eres Tu, who both had every chance to go by Liora in the lane but didn’t. I like the way this filly dug in and held the place spot, plus trainer Wayne Catalano gets blinkers on her for the first time (33 percent win rate). Finally, she’s been training extremely well since that last race.

$10 Budget

$5 win on #8 Liora ($5)

$2 exacta box 2,8 ($4)

$25 Budget

$5 win and place on #8 Liora ($10)

$5 exacta box 2,8 ($10)

$1 exacta 8 with 1,4,5,6,7 ($5)

$50 Budget

$10 win and place on #8 Liora ($20)

$8 exacta box 2,8 ($16)

$1 exacta key box 8 with all ($14)

Fair Grounds, Race 13, $1 million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, 6:13 p.m. ET

#3 Limonite: I’m going back to the well here with a horse that I loved when he was making his first start of 2019 in the Risen Star last month. If you watched that race, you know that he was drawn wide, got stuck way off the pace, made a charge up the rail, and then get totally stopped and shut off several times before crossing the line fifth. Unlike a lot of horses in Derby preps who become immediate “bet-back next out” buzz horses because of a tough trip, Limonite has seemingly remained under the radar going into the Louisiana Derby. If we can get a price anywhere near the 20-1 listed on the morning line, that’s just fine with me. Not only does he have a better post position in this race, he has the benefit of having additional conditioning under his belt for his second start of the year, and he gets one of the top jockeys in the country (Jose Ortiz) to ride him in this spot.

War of Will, despite his dominance to date, was relatively flat from a speed figure perspective race to race from the Lecomte to the Risen Star. Any one of several horses could take a step forward and run a bigger race here, including Lemniscate who’s appealing as a pace play and Sueno who — in the Southwest Stakes — finished ahead of last weekend’s Rebel Stakes winner Long Range Toddy.

$10 Budget

$2 win, place, and show on #3 Limonite ($6)

$1 exacta 2,3 with 2,3,6 ($4)

$25 Budget

$5 win, place, and show on #3 Limonite ($15)

$.50 trifecta 2,3,6 with 2,3,6 with 2,3,4,6,8 ($9)

$50 Budget

$8 win, place, and show on #3 Limonite ($24)

$4 exacta box 3,6 ($8)

$1 exacta 2,3 over 2,3,4,6,8 ($8)

$.50 trifecta 2,3,6 with 2,3,6 with 2,3,4,6,8 ($9)


Last Week’s Earnings: $0

Year-to-Date Earnings: $1,725.46

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