Dan's Double: Seeking a Nice Score at Santa Anita

Gambling
Fans take a closer look at the program in this Santa Anita Park file photo. (Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)

Dan’s Double of the Week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!


Saturday, Oct. 26

Santa Anita Park, Race 3, 4:30 p.m. ET

#9 Convincingly: Off of a nice score last week at Laurel on Maryland Million Day, we’ll shift our attention this weekend to Santa Anita — we might as well get ready for next weekend’s Breeders’ Cup by this weekend digging into a few races at this year’s host track for the World Championships. Convincingly ran a very impressive third in her last race when she was forced to make a late move because she was caught in traffic behind horses. Had she found clear running room earlier, she would’ve finished second at a minimum and might’ve won. She’s a $200,000 purchase by Bobby Flay, and Convincingly is a daughter of Declaration of War who wins with 20% of his 2-year-old starters routing on the turf. She’s also a half-sister to a horse named Kadar. He won on debut as a 2-year-old in England before shipping this year to the U.S., where he’s run in very competitive graded stakes company. There should be plenty of pace in this race, including a number of horses who’ll be stretching out for the first time and horses who’ve already shown an affinity for the front end, like A G Indy and Magically Honored.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$2 win, place, show on #9 Convincingly ($6)

$2 exacta box: 5,9 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$5 win, place, show on #9 Convincingly ($15)

$5 exacta box: 5,9 ($10)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$10 win, place, show on #9 Convincingly ($30)

$5 exacta box: 5,9 ($10)

$.50 trifecta 5,9 with 5,6,9 with 1,4,5,6,9,10,11 ($10)

Santa Anita Park, Race 7, $100,000 Autumn Miss Stakes, 6:30 p.m. ET

#7 Great Sister Diane: This is a fun, little betting race and if you can get past #3 Hidden Message — who’ll take a lot of action off of an impressive U.S. debut last out — you’ve got a pretty wide open board with value to be found in some potentially sneaky horses. The sneakiest of all is #7 Great Sister Diane. After being claimed out of a maiden win in May, she was brought back by her new connections in July and crushed winners for the first time in a mid-level claiming race. She stepped up into stakes company from there and had excuses when finishing fourth. They brought her back in stakes company again and she won. She’s posted progressively larger speed figures with every race this year and her Florida-based barn must be pretty high on her to ship her in for this, considering trainer Rohan Crichton has never shipped a horse to Santa Anita before. She’s an improving type that’s being plopped into a solid, but not spectacular field of 3-year-old turf stakes runners. Her price will also be huge. #9 Mucho Unusual is probably the best of the rest in her return to Santa Anita where she’s run some of her best races; she’s also 3-for-3 at this mile distance.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$2 win, place, show on #7 Great Sister Diane ($6)

$1 exacta 7,9 with 5,7,9 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$4 win, place, show on #7 Great Sister Diane ($12)

$1 exacta box: 5,7,9,10 ($12)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$6 win, place, show on #7 Great Sister Diane ($18)

$1 exacta box: 5,7,9,10 ($12)

$.50 trifecta 5,7,9 with 5,7,9,10 with 3,4,5,7,9,10 ($18)

Last Week’s Earnings: $628.20

Year-to-Date Earnings: $6,197.97



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