Dan's Double: Saratoga Saturday Spotlight

Gambling
Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing

Dan’s Double of the Week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!


Saturday, July 13, Saratoga Race Course, Race 2, 1:36 p.m. ET

#5 Linda’s Ballet: You can put a line through her last race and forgive her for the poor effort in a race that washed off the turf. If you go back to her two prior starts on the grass, she’s clearly a filly with some talent, having finished third (beaten just a length) against tougher at Belmont Park. The blinkers come off after proving apparently ineffective last out. Blinkers coming on or off can prove to be valuable information in some (rare) instances, and this is one of them. When switching to “blinkers off” trainer Linda Rice scores at a remarkable 41% clip (9 for the last 22) and has hit the board with nearly 80% of those runners. Rice also wins at a 27% rate when dropping down from maiden special weight level to maiden claiming, which is what Linda’s Ballet will be doing on Saturday.

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$2 win, place and show on #5 Linda’s Ballet ($6)

$1 exacta 5,9 with 2,5,9 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget 

$4 win, place and show on #5 Linda’s Ballet ($12)

$1 exacta box 2,5,9 ($6)

$1 trifecta box 2,5,9 ($6)

Strategy on a $50 Budget 

$8 win, place and show on #5 Linda’s Ballet ($24)

$1 exacta box 2,5,9 ($6)

$1 trifecta box 2,5,9 ($6)

$5 exacta box 5,9 ($10)

$1 trifecta 3 with 5,9 with 2,5,9 ($4)


Saturday, July 13, Saratoga Race Course, Race 11, 6:55 p.m. ET

#4 Derby Champagne: This horse has somehow slipped past me multiple times over the past few years. He won at Saratoga in 2016 at odds of 29-to-1 and then he finished second here in 2017 at odds of 49-to-1. The latter effort earned him a 110 Equibase Speed Figure, which is the highest he’s ever earned in any of his 27 starts. He’s simply a horse who enjoys the inner turf at Saratoga and he’s also hit the board in 7 of his 16 starts going a mile. Derby Champagne drops in here for $25,000 – the lowest level he’s ever raced in – and returns to a course and distance that suits him. There’s plenty to like at what should again be a pretty nice price.

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$3 win, place and show on #4 Derby Champagne ($9)

Strategy on a $25 Budget 

$1 exacta box 2,4,7,11 ($12)

$4 win, place and show on #4 Derby Champagne ($12)

Strategy on a $50 Budget 

$1 exacta box 2,4,7,11 ($12)

$1 exacta key box 4 with all ($20)

$6 win, place and show on #4 Derby Champagne ($18)

Last Week’s Earnings: $0

Year-to-Date Earnings: $3,136.81

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