Dan's Double: Playing the Percentages at Laurel

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Fans at Laurel Park check out the horses in the post parade in this file photo. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Dan’s Double of the Week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!


Saturday, Dec. 21

Laurel Park, Race 3, 1:22 p.m. ET

#6 Talented Dr. B: This gelding has proved pretty brave for this level in two starts on the dirt after not firing in his debut on the turf back in September. He returned in October to finish a strong second while chasing the pace early and holding off a number of the late closers, including returning threat #3 Sing a Verse. That horse came back to finish second to Catonsville, who finished several lengths off of Talented Dr. B in that October race. Last time out, Talented Dr. B again prompted the pace and again figured to fade as they turned for home. Instead, he kicked on to finish second again, and he was six lengths clear of the third-place finisher. That was at a mile. He should enjoy the slight cutback here to seven furlongs. He also seems to have the most heart of any in this bunch and he’s one of the more lightly raced (and underexposed) horses in the field.

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$5 to win on #6 Talented Dr. B ($5)

$2 exacta box: 3,6 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$15 to win on #6 Talented Dr. B ($15)

$5 exacta box: 3,6 ($10)

Strategy on a $50 Budget 

$20 to win on #6 Talented Dr. B ($20)

$5 exacta box: 3,6 ($10)

$1 trifecta 3,6,7 with 3,4,5,6,7 with 3,4,5,6,7 ($18)

Laurel Park, Race 7, 3:20 p.m. ET

#7 Earned It: This horse took a big step forward in his first start off the claim for Anthony Farrior who has been red hot of late — his barn is winning at a 35% clip over the past 30 days. Earned It’s 83 Equibase Speed Figure last out is competitive with the top figure posted by any in here and he seems more likely to be sitting on a big race than some of the other top contenders in this race. #3 Run for James has the back form to win this on his best day but he only has one start since July and it wasn’t a good one. This will be the second time aboard Earned It for jockey Alex Cintron. He wins 36% of the time when riding for Farrior … lots of positive signs here. 

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$5 win, place on #7 Earned It ($10)

Strategy on a $25 Budget 

$5 win, place on #7 Earned It ($10)

$1 exacta box: 7,8,9 ($6)

$.50 trifecta 3,7 with 3,7,8,9 with 3,7,8,9 ($6)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$8 win, place on #7 Earned It ($16)

$1 exacta box: 7,8,9 ($6)

$1 trifecta 3,7 with 3,7,8,9 with 3,7,8,9 ($12)

$.10 superfecta 7,8 with 3,7,8,9 with 3,4,5,7,8,9 with all ($14.40)

Last Week’s Earnings: $0

Year-to-Date Earnings: $7,077.70


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