Dan's Double: Longshots on Maryland Million Day

Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing

Dan’s Double of the Week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

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When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!

Saturday, Oct. 19

Laurel Park, Race 4, $60,000 Maryland Million Turf Starter Handicap, 1:30 p.m. ET 

#11 Bowsprit (12-1): There are so many good betting races on the Maryland Million card at Laurel that it’s hard to narrow it down to just two. That said, I’m going to post two of my favorite longshots on the Saturday card and hope we get the setups that I expect. The pace in this race is a bit of a mystery but we do know that #9 No More Talk and #6 Tricky Lion both have lots of early speed. There are at least three others who could press the pace, as well. So, I’m looking for a horse who might be coming into this race in peak form and who has the ability to kick late from off the pace. That’s how we land on #11 Bowsprit. As recently as last December, he was running in Grade 3 company — these horses aren’t anywhere near that caliber. Bowsprit is a deep closer and one of only two horses in this 14-horse race to win at a mile and an eighth. He comes out of a race that doesn’t look great on paper but he actually ran pretty well considering he was disadvantaged by pace dynamics in that one and had to close on the inside part of the track (which wasn’t optimal over the course that day). If the pace is hot, I have little doubt that Bowsprit will be flying late at a big price.

$10 Budget

$2 win, place and show on #11 Bowsprit ($6)

$1 exacta 11 over 1,3,9,14 ($4)

$25 Budget

$4 win, place and show on #11 Bowsprit ($12)

$1 exacta key box 11 over 1,3,4,7,9,14 ($12)

$50 Budget

$8 win, place and show on #11 Bowsprit ($24)

$1 exacta key box 11 over 1,3,4,7,9,14 ($12)

$1 trifecta 1,11 with 1,3,11 with 1,3,9,11,14 ($12)

Laurel Park, Race 10, $150,000 Maryland Million Classic, 4:30 p.m. ET

#6 Tattooed (15-1): The featured race of the day also presents another excellent betting opportunity. Tattooed finished last of 10 in this race last year but he also drew the far outside post. Going a mile and an eighth at Laurel, the clubhouse turn comes up really quickly after the break from the gate. That’s important to note for this year’s race too because I think the best horse in the race is actually #11 Torch of Truth. My big concern with him is that he’s going to lose enough ground going into the first turn that it’s going to catch up with him late as he tries to make this distance for the first time. Going back to Tattooed, he’s drawn better this year, has the ability to sit off the pace, possesses the pedigree to get the mile and an eighth and he’s all but guaranteed to be a huge price. A lot of bettors might dismiss him on the basis of his poor finish last time out but he was involved in a taxing three-way pace duel throughout the early stages of the race, which certainly cost him. He gets new jockey Angel Cruz today and (with all due respect to Feargal Lynch, who is a fine rider) he could provide an improved ride over this dirt course, which he’s previously had success over on Maryland Million day.

$10 Budget

$2 win, place and show on #6 Tattooed ($6)

$1 exacta key box 6 over 3,8 ($4)

$25 Budget 

$4 win, place and show on #6 Tattooed ($12)

$1 exacta key box 6 over 1,3,4,7,8,11 ($12)

$50 Budget

$10 win, place and show on #6 Tattooed ($30)

$1 exacta key box 6 over 1,3,4,7,8,11 ($12)

$.50 trifecta 6,11 with 6,8,11 with 1,3,4,6,8,11 ($8)

Last Week’s Earnings: $249.96

Year-to-Date Earnings: $5,569.77

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