Dan’s Double: A First-Timer and a Bet-Back at Saratoga

Gambling
Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing

Dan’s Double of the Week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC).

Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!


Saturday, Aug. 17, Saratoga Race Course, Race 7, 4:20 p.m. ET

#4 Candy Tycoon: There’s lots of win-early pedigree here. Twirling Candy progeny win at a 21% clip as 2-year-olds when sprinting on the dirt. Of the dam’s 2-year-olds who’ve raced, they’ve combined for 14 starts at age 2, and they’ve won four times and hit the board in nine of those races. Two of those wins came in dirt sprints. Trainer Todd Pletcher is obviously known to get them ready early at Saratoga too, so expect this horse will likely get bet down. You might consider an exacta with #7 Excession. He’s a horse making his second start for trainer Steve Asmussen who wins with about 25% of his horses second out at Saratoga. This is a horse who didn’t break cleanly on debut and looked super green. He should be a factor if he gained anything at all from that first start.

Strategy on a $10 Budget 

$2 exacta box 4,7 ($4)

$1 trifecta box 4,7,9 ($6) 

Strategy on a $25 Budget 

$5 to win on #4 Candy Tycoon ($5)

$4 exacta box 4,7 ($8)

$2 trifecta box 4,7,9 ($12)

Strategy on a $50 Budget 

$10 to win on #4 Candy Tycoon ($10)

$5 exacta box 4,7 ($10)

$2 trifecta box 4,7,9 ($12)

$6 pick three 4 with 5 with 2,4,5 ($18)


Saturday, Aug. 17, Saratoga Race Course, Race 11, 6:32 p.m. ET

#2 Sweet Meadow Mist: If the name sounds familiar, it should. Sweet Meadow Mist is a horse we nearly made a very nice score with a few weeks back. When I picked her on July 27, she wasn’t even on the screen when the horses turned for home. Jockey Joel Rosario didn’t push the button on her until it was too late – but when she did start running, she motored past nearly the entire field in a matter of strides and got up just in time to finish fourth. On Saturday, she gets an extra furlong (stretching out to seven-eighths of a mile) which should give her more time to get started and a better shot at catching the horses up front. Had the July 27 race been run at seven furlongs, Sweet Meadow Mist would have won by at least five lengths. She’s one-for-one at this distance and her only poor effort to date came over the turf two races ago. She’s a pretty straightforward single in the late Pick-5 sequence.

Strategy on a $10 Budget  

$10 to win on #2 Sweet Meadow Mist ($10)

Strategy on a $25 Budget 

$10 to win on #2 Sweet Meadow Mist ($10)

$5 exacta 2 with 3,6,10 ($15)

Strategy on a $50 Budget 

$25 to win on #2 Sweet Meadow Mist ($25)

$5 exacta 2 with 3,6,10 ($15)

$.50 trifecta 2 with 3,5,6,7,10 ($10)

Last Week’s Earnings: $140

Year-to-Date Earnings: $3,860.66

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