Dan’s Double of the Week, featuring handicapping analysis from America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the sharpest horseplayers around.

Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Good luck!

Saturday, May 4

Churchill Downs, Race 10, $400,000 Pat Day Mile Stakes, 4:28 p.m. ET

#9 Captain Von Trappe (15-1): This race has yielded some longshot winners over the last several years, and that’s what I’d expect again this year. The key to the Pat Day Mile is how fast they go early and how much pace pressure can be sustained by probable favorite #10 Instagrand? I think #4 Mr Money Bags could be a pesky presence, and additional speed could come from #2 Market King and #8 Manny Wah. That said, I’m going to go with one-run pace stalker Captain Von Trappe.

Take a look at his move in the Rebel Stakes. For a moment there, turning for home, it looked like he might join the battle that eventually unfolded between Game Winner and Omaha Beach. But ultimately, he flattened out and got passed by a few horses before finishing sixth. He looks like a miler and I’d expect him to not only enjoy the cut back in distance here but to also relish the wet track should it rain as much as expected. His best race came on a muddy surface at Oaklawn. His best race at Churchill came on a track listed as “Good” back in November. A lot of positive signs here and don’t forget that trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. nearly won this race last year at odds of 31-1.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$2 win, place, show on #9 Captain Von Trappe ($6)

$1 exacta: 9,10 over 9,10,13

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$4 win, place, show on #9 Captain Von Trappe ($12)

$1 exacta box: 9,10,11,13 ($12)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$8 win, place, show on #9 Captain Von Trappe ($24)

$1 exacta box: 9,10,11,13 ($12)

$.50 trifecta: 9,10 with 9,10 with ALL ($12)

Churchill Downs, Race 11, $1 million Old Forester Turf Classic Stakes, 5:25 p.m. ET

#11 March to the Arch (20-1): This feels like another good spot to reach for a price, especially in anticipation of wet conditions at Churchill on Saturday. At first glance, the horse to beat is #12 Bricks and Mortar. He’s been perfect in his last three but was nearly beaten by #5 Markitoff last out and, for as spectacular as Bricks and Mortar has looked since coming back late last year, he’s been beaten in two of his three tries at 1 1/8 miles. Enter March to the Arch. There’s no doubt that the horses he handled last out at Tampa couldn’t hold a candle to these. Still, he’s tested in graded stakes and he’s run several nice races at this distance and on a wet turf course. #7 Prime Attraction is a bit of a wild card. He’s cross-entered, and if he goes in this race, he’ll certainly ensure a faster pace which would benefit March to the Arch. Either way, look for a late rush from this horse (at a huge price).

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$2 win, place, show on #11 March to the Arch ($6)

$1 exacta: 2,11 with 2,11,12 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$4 win, place, show on #11 March to the Arch ($12)

$1 exacta box: 2,11,12 ($6)

$1 trifecta box: 2,11,12 ($6)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$4 win, place, show on #11 March to the Arch ($12)

$1 exacta box: 2,11,12 ($6)

$1 trifecta box: 2,11,12 ($6)

$1 exacta key box: 11 with all ($24)

Last Week’s Earnings: $109.20

Year-to-Date Earnings: $2,489.11