What does it take for a horse to win the $250,000 Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct?
Obviously it takes talent. The Remsen is an official prep race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve, offering 10 Derby qualifying points to the winner. The race typically draws a deep field, and the last 15 winners have included the future Grade 1 winners Bluegrass Cat, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Court Vision, To Honor and Serve, Overanalyze, Honor Code, Mo Town, and Catholic Boy.
Stamina is also required to win the Remsen. The race is held over 1 1/8 miles, a challenging distance for lightly-raced 2-year-olds to negotiate. You won’t see sprinters winning the Remsen—you need classic two-turn stamina to succeed.
For these reasons, some handicappers will consider #4 Ajaaweed the horse to beat in the Remsen. As a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin out of a mare by classy miler Daaher, Ajaaweed has a stout enough pedigree to be successful over 1 1/8 miles. He’s also demonstrated some ability at the highest level of the sport, rallying to finish fourth in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.
But dig a little deeper, and Ajaaweed’s form starts to look a little less appealing. The Breeders’ Futurity was dominated by late runners, yet Ajaaweed couldn’t match strides with the top three finishers when it counted. He actually lost ground down the lane while passing tired rivals, finishing five lengths behind third-place finisher Enforceable, who came back to finish a non-threatening fourth in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.
As a deep closer, Ajaaweed would benefit from a fast pace in the Remsen, but this race seems unlikely to unfold at a rapid tempo. There isn’t a single genuine front-runner in the field—none of the nine starters have ever set the pace in any race. This figures to similarly compromise the flashy maiden winner #9 Amends, who capitalized on a destructive pace meltdown when rallying to victory by 4 ¼ lengths over a sloppy, sealed track at Belmont in October.
At first glance, #8 Alpha Sixty Six seems like another late runner who will be compromised by a slow pace, but there might be more to this Todd Pletcher-trained colt than first meets the eye. In his debut sprinting 6 ½ furlongs at Belmont Park, Alpha Sixty Six stayed within striking range of the pace before rallying tenaciously through fast finishing fractions to win by a neck.
Alpha Sixty Six then stepped up in class for the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont, where he unfortunately caused his own troubles with a poor start. Breaking from the rail, he shied inward shortly after the gates opened and lost all his momentum, conceding about five lengths to the rest of the field. Despite this obstacle—and despite briefly running up on the heels of a rival in the homestretch—Alpha Sixty Six kept grinding away to cross the wire in fifth place, beaten less than a length for the runner-up spot.
With a better break in the Remsen Stakes, I believe Alpha Sixty Six can revert to the pace-tracking tactics he utilized in his debut. His connections certainly know how to succeed in this race—Pletcher has won the Remsen twice, while Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez has reached the winner’s circle four times. As a son of Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Liam’s Map out of a mare by noted stamina influence Giant’s Causeway, Alpha Sixty Six has the pedigree to handle 1 1/8 miles, and he’ll race without blinkers for the first time on Saturday, which could potentially trigger improvement.
For all these reasons, I recommend betting Alpha Sixty Six to win. He should start at a fair price in the wagering, making him an appealing alternative to Ajaaweed.
I also suggest playing Alpha Sixty Six on top of a trifecta. Underneath, we’ll use the stakes-experienced colts Ajaaweed, #1 Chase Tracker, #3 Cleon Jones, and #6 Shotski. If we can correctly identify the top three finishers, we’ll be rewarded with a hefty payoff.
Wagering Strategy on a $25 Budget
$13 to win on #8 Alpha Sixty Six
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, 9th race, $13 to win on 8.
$1 trifecta: 8 with 1,3,4,6 with 1,3,4,6 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, 9th race, $1 trifecta 8 with 1,3,4,6 with 1,3,4,6
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Pick 3
10-12-6
10-12-6
$302
Daily Double
12-6
12-6
$103
Superfecta
6-4-1-5
6-4-1-5
$312
Trifecta
6-4-1
6-4-1
$141
Grand Slam
3/5-3/4/6/10/11-1/2/8/9/12-6
3/5-3/4/6/10/11-1/2/8/9/12-6
$73
Pick 3
10-12-6
10-12-6
$302
Daily Double
12-6
12-6
$103
Superfecta
6-4-1-5
6-4-1-5
$312
Trifecta
6-4-1
6-4-1
$141
Grand Slam
3/5-3/4/6/10/11-1/2/8/9/12-6
3/5-3/4/6/10/11-1/2/8/9/12-6
$73
