Pigskins and Ponies: Sunday NFL Trio, Dancing at Del Mar

Gambling

If you like betting both football and horse racing, you've come to the right place!

Each week in Pigskins and Ponies you'll find analysis and key football bets from Payne Insider and Todd Fuhrman plus racing picks from Jose Contreras.

Professional bettor Payne Insider and former oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman are founders of Bet the Board, a cutting edge sports betting company focused on written and digital content. You can listen to Bet The Board podcast every Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday during football season on iTunes and Soundcloud.

Handicapper Jose Contreras is an analyst for horse racing network TVG and a regular contributor to America's Best Racing.

Get this week's picks below, and be sure to check back for new selections each week. Happy betting!


Pigskins

Washington Redskins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (-115)

Washington got outclassed at home against the Falcons by 2 yards per play, and they lost 4 offensive lineman in the process (two are now gone for season, which was broken on the Bet The Board Podcast Monday morning by former NFL team doctor David Chao). That forced the Redskins to sign three  offensive lineman to their active roster ahead of this weeks game. While the Bucs have been anything but good on the defensive end, they’ve faced the third-toughest schedule of offenses and their strength lies in the defensive front; which is fifth in adjusted line yards and 14th in adjusted sack rate. Even though Washington is 5-3 and in first place in the NFC East, they are a net -0.3 yards per play this year. Tampa’s defensive line should win the war in the trenches, and the game as well.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 @ Indianapolis Colts  

Indianapolis has looked very good on offense, specifically their offensive line the past four weeks. Meanwhile, Jacksonville seems to be in a complete tailspin. The good news for the Jaguars is it looks like bruising running back Leonard Fournette will be back, and he brings a style and attitude to the field his team has sorely missed. The Colts have faced the second-easiest slate of opposing rush offenses thus far, and we see success for Jacksonville on the ground here. This number opened +3, flickered to 3.5, and then shot back down to a “soft” 3. We agree with the move down.

Detroit Lions +7 (-115) @ Chicago Bears:

When people quote “line moves” and “look-ahead lines,” the honest truth is that some are completely justified while others might actually create value on the other side. The look-ahead line here was Chicago -4.5, and while Chicago made quick work of Buffalo, it wasn’t necessarily efficient work. Buffalo gifted the Bears two defensive touchdowns, and QB Mitch Trubisky led the offense to a poor 4.1 yards per play. Lions QB Matthew Stafford “pitched” away a chance for Detroit last week, and the offensive line was horrible protecting him. Expect an “all-in” effort here after two tough losses. It’s time to buy low on the Lions, so grab the inflated +7.

Kentucky @ Tennessee +6  

Kentucky lost this past weekend, therefore sealing their fate as the No. 2 spot in the SEC East for the rest of the season no matter if they win or lose. They were exposed on the ground (Georgia ran for 6.6 yards per carry), and their offense stumbled when it mattered early on. Tennessee has been steadily improving on the defensive side throughout the season, and 6 points is a lot to lay on the road for an offense averaging a meager 5.2 yards per play. This number opened 3.5 at BetOnline.AG, and at the current price all the value lies with the Vols. 

Best Bet: [145] Maryland +2


Ponies

Saturday, Nov. 10

Del Mar, Race 5, 5:30 p.m. ET

#1 MY SWEET BABOO (5-2 odds) debuted here at Del Mar back in September when finishing fourth at this same distance while breaking from post-position nine in a field of 10. She missed third by a nose that day and was defeated by fellow entrant Colonial Creed, who finished second that day. I thought it was a very good, educational debut for My Sweet Baboo, and I like that the connections gave her plenty of time to recover from that run. I think she’s going to show more speed from this inside post today.

Sunday, Nov. 11

Del Mar, Race 2, 4 p.m. ET

#7 DANCING BELLE (4-1 odds) ran evenly and finished fourth in her most-recent effort. That was her first try on the turf and her second start off a long layoff. She now switches back to the dirt and returns to the track where she had some of her best efforts. She’s still a maiden but she did finish second in the Grade 2 Sorrento and fourth in in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante here in 2017. There’s no one with those credentials in this field. If she runs back to those races, she should win.

Total picks: 20

Total winners: 2

Total money returned with $2 to win on each pick: -$24.40



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