Pigskins and Ponies: Live NFL Underdogs, Talented 2-Year-Old

Gambling

If you like betting both football and horse racing, you've come to the right place!

Each week in Pigskins and Ponies you'll find analysis and key football bets from Payne Insider and Todd Fuhrman plus racing picks from Jose Contreras.

Professional bettor Payne Insider and former oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman are founders of Bet the Board, a cutting edge sports betting company focused on written and digital content. You can listen to Bet The Board podcast every Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday during football season on iTunes and Soundcloud.

Handicapper Jose Contreras is an analyst for horse racing network TVG and a regular contributor to America's Best Racing.

Get this week's picks below, and be sure to check back for new selections each week. Happy betting!


Pigskins

Miami Dolphins +3 @ New York Jets:  

The Jets looked like world-beaters on Monday Night Football, forcing five turnovers (later revealing they were ‘ahead of the game’ in terms of play calling), and rushing for 4.7 yards per play. This week they come home to take on the Dolphins, who impressed on both sides of the ball against the Tennessee Titans. This exact line last week was Jets -1, and the 2-point adjustment seems too steep especially around the more important key number. Recreational bettors will likely gravitate towards the home team after what they did on National TV, but I expect this line to drop. Miami is the value side here.

Oakland Raiders +6.5 @ Denver Broncos:  

Speaking of adjustments, we have a massive one here. Denver overcame three Case Keenum interceptions last week against the Seattle Seahawks to pull out a three-point victory. Oakland was very competitive against the Los Angeles Rams, though the scoreboard suggests otherwise. Quarterback David Carr threw three inexplicable picks, and that was the difference. There have been rumblings that Oakland is “done,” coach Jon Gruden is out of his element, and the Raiders looked awful. The truth is the score was tied late into the third quarter, before turnovers ballooned and the lead grew to double-digits. At the current number, Oakland has the value here especially since the look-ahead line was +1 just last week.

New York Giants +3 @ Dallas Cowboys:

Bet the Board had noted a “Bullish” Denver signal and “Bearish” Seattle situation last week, and I’m revisiting that concept again for Week 2. The Giants attracted sharp action for the over on their season win total, their Week 1 matchup against Jacksonville, and now again here at Dallas on Sunday Night.  This line opened 3.5 at BetOnline.ag, and the hooks are all gone. Outside of a -1 turnover margin (a pick six), the Giants outplayed a very good Jaguars team, while Dallas struggled mightily on the offensive side versus the Carolina Panthers. I just don’t see those issues correcting in just a few short days here.  New York has advantages on both sides of the ball, and they have an excellent shot at winning this game. 

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos Over 45.5 (-110):

We spoke on the side above, but the total here is also intriguing. Denver had success through the air last week against Seattle and, if it wasn’t for turnovers, they may have scored 35-plus. On the back end of Denver’s defense, Seattle found receivers running wide open. Oakland may have one of the least-talented secondaries in the league, while also failing to generate pressure. That’s a bad combination. Throw in the fact we could have some turnovers in this game with the two starting quarterbacks throwing six interceptions combined last week, and this number offers some value.

LSU @ Auburn -9.5 (-110):

LSU goes into Auburn for one of the biggest games of the weekend. This line opened Auburn -8.5 before slowly rising to the current price. LSU, though impressive on the scoreboard, still needs to show me something offensively, and this matchup doesn’t suit that desire. Auburn’s front seven is very strong, and even though the total is low (44.5), the favorite has value. Despite the scoreboard, it was the Miami Hurricanes that actually outgained LSU in the opener on a yards-per-play basis. This feels like a statement game for Auburn (similar to Georgia last week), and with revenge on their minds, a 27-10 score would not surprise me one bit.

Best Bet: [287] New York Giants +3


Ponies

Saturday, Sept. 15

Los Alamitos Race Course, Race 8

In her last race #5 Midnight Miracle broke fast, then dueled with the betting favorite and put her away while opening up impressively down the stretch to win easily. That was a nice improvement for her first start for this barn and she now enters in a race where she can’t be claimed. She will be tough to beat if she improves again.

Sunday, Sept. 16

Los Alamitos Race Course, Race 7

Arrowsphere (#3) got hooked in a speed duel and weakened in the stretch last time against a tougher group of allowance horses. She now takes a drop in class back to a claiming race and returns to the track of her maiden win two starts back. Peter Eurton's barn has been spotting horses well this meet and I think this one is ready to fire a big effort in this spot.

Total Picks: 2
Total Winners: 0
Total $2 win wagers on each pick: $4
Total money return: -$4

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