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Now Reading Looking Beyond Two Favorites for Mild Upset in Whitney Stakes

Looking Beyond Two Favorites for Mild Upset in Whitney Stakes

Mirando Más Allá de Dos Favoritos para una Mediana Sorpresa en el Whitney Stakes

Gambling
August 2nd, 2018 by Ellis Starr
Fans at Saratoga cheer home a winner earlier this meet. (Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)

The 91st running of the Grade 1, $1.2 million Whitney Stakes, is a “Win and You’re In” Challenge Series race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. It brings together a field of eight led by multi-millionaire and multiple Grade/Group 1 stakes winner Mind Your Biscuits, who in his 23rd career start is trying two turns for the first time. In his most recent race, Mind Your Biscuits rallied furiously in the final yards to come up a nose shy of victory in the Grade 1 Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap. The other seven entrants all have significant accomplishments and all are graded stakes winners, including Diversify, with a bankroll of $1.3 million and winner of the Grade 2 Suburban Stakes last month in wire-to-wire fashion, the same way he won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup last fall. Then there’s Good Samaritan, who has banked more than $1.2 million and who won the 2017 Jim Dandy Stakes at this distance last summer at Saratoga. Backyard Heaven is the most lightly raced of the group, having started just five times, winning three of those races including the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes Presented by Sentient Jet in May. Tapwrit earned his biggest win 14 months ago in the 2017 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets and is winless in three races since then. Dalmore hasn’t won a graded stakes since his victory in the Grade 3 Affirmed Stakes in July 2016 but was recently second in the Grade 3 Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap and may be turning a corner. McCraken, who won the 2017 Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes and who was second by a nose in the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational Stakes that same summer, most recently finished third (behind Dalmore) in the Cornhusker. Discreet Lover rounds out the field with his biggest win in recent history coming in the Grade 3 Excelsior Stakes in April at this distance, but he hasn’t threatened to win in four stakes races since then.

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I strongly believe Backyard Heaven is ready for the big time and can post the mild upset in this year’s Whitney Stakes. In this eight-horse field, there are three horses that have shown a tendency to lead early — Diversify, Dalmore, and Backyard Heaven, but as Backyard Heaven draws the inside post among the trio, I suspect jockey Javier Castellano will use that position to his advantage. If Castellano and Backyard Heaven get the lead from the start even by a small margin, it would force Dalmore and Diversify (and their jockeys) to go around him to get to the front. That seems an unlikely occurrence as it would cause their horses to put in an early surge of energy to do so, which may cost them late, so in doing so they may win the battle but they would lose the war. Instead, Backyard Heaven will be allowed to control the pace and this lightly raced 4-year-old should be able to improve off the career-best 116 Equibase Speed Figure earned winning the Alysheba Stakes in May. Other than the probable beneficial pace scenario, Backyard Heaven has another factor squarely pointing at a win, which is the Stats Race Lens angle showing that horses win 29 percent of the time over the past year when trainer Chad Brown makes a jockey change to Castellano, who is riding Backyard Heaven for the first time.

Mind Your Biscuits is an accomplished horse with earnings of $3,939,286, much of which was earned winning the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen in Dubai two years in a row. He returned from this year’s win to run one of the best races of his career in the Metropolitan Handicap in June, missing by a nose with a 118 figure. Although Mind Your Biscuits has never run around two turns in a race, he has run well at a mile. Per the Stats Race Lens statistics regarding other foals by his sire, Posse, Mind Your Biscuits should have no trouble with the 1 1/8-mile distanced as his sire’s other sons and daughters have a very good record of 10 for 18 at the distance on dirt in stakes races. As such, Mind Your Biscuits has a big shot to go over the $4.5-million plateau in career earnings with a win.

Diversify has demonstrated that, although he prefers to lead from the start, he does not need the lead to win. Among his nine wins in 14 career starts, Diversify earned seven of those on the lead from the opening bell, but ran just as well from off the pace as when taking the Commentator Stakes in May and the Saginaw Stakes last July. Following the Saginaw, Diversify earned back-to-back 119 figures when winning the Evan Shipman Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup. Entering the Whitney Stakes off a pair of wins, including the Suburban Stakes last month at 1 ¼ miles, Diversify has the potential to duplicate his three wins in a row feat from last year.

The rest of the Whitney field (with best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Dalmore (112), Discreet Lover (114), Good Samaritan (116), McCraken (111) and Tapwrit (111). 

Win contenders:

Backyard Heaven

Mind Your Biscuits

Diversify

2018 Whitney S.
August 4th, 2018

Winning Time: 1:49.62
  • Purse: $1,200,000
  • Distance: 1 1/8 Miles
  • Age: 3 yo's & up
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Winning Time: 1:49.62
Results
Win
Place
Show
1st
6 Diversify
$5.20
$3.30
$2.80
2nd
4 Mind Your Biscuits
$3.90
$3.20
3rd
5 Discreet Lover
$6.60
4th
1 Tapwrit
5th
7 Good Samaritan
6th
8 McCraken
7th
2 Backyard Heaven
8th
3 Dalmore
Payoff
Pick 3
6-6-6
6-6-6
$40
Pick 4
4-5/6/8-5/6-6
4-5/6/8-5/6-6
$214
Pick 6
1-1-4-5/6/8-5/6-6
1-1-4-5/6/8-5/6-6
$3,550
Pick 6
1-1-4-5/6/8-5/6-6
1-1-4-5/6/8-5/6-6
$72
Daily Double
6-6
6-6
$8
Exacta
6-4
6-4
$10
Superfecta
6-4-5-1
6-4-5-1
$38
Trifecta
6-4-5
6-4-5
$49
Payoff
Pick 3
6-6-6
6-6-6
$40
Pick 4
4-5/6/8-5/6-6
4-5/6/8-5/6-6
$214
Pick 6
1-1-4-5/6/8-5/6-6
1-1-4-5/6/8-5/6-6
$3,550
Pick 6
1-1-4-5/6/8-5/6-6
1-1-4-5/6/8-5/6-6
$72
Daily Double
6-6
6-6
$8
Exacta
6-4
6-4
$10
Superfecta
6-4-5-1
6-4-5-1
$38
Trifecta
6-4-5
6-4-5
$49
Powered by: Equibase
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La 91ra. edición del Grado 1, Whitney Stakes, con bolsa de premios de $ 1.2 millones, es una carrera de la Challenge Series “Gana y Clasificas” para la Breeders’ Cup Classic. Nos trae a un grupo de ocho, liderados por el multimillonario y múltiple ganador de clásicos de Grupo/Grado 1, Mind Your Biscuits, quien estará yendo a dos curvas por primera vez en su campaña de 23 actuaciones. En su más reciente carrera, Mind Your Biscuits atropelló furiosamente en las yardas finales para arañar una tímida victoria por nariz en el Grado 1Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap. Los otros siete inscritos tienen todos significativos logros y son todos ganadores de clásicos de grado, incluyendo a Diversify, con una cuenta bancaria de $1.3 millones y ganador el último mes del Grado 2 Suburban Stakes de extremo a extremo, del mismo modo en que ganara el pasado otoño el Grado 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. Después tenemos a Good Samaritan, quien ha acumulado en premios más de $1.2 millones y que ha ganado el 2017 Jim Dandy Stakes sobre esta distancia el pasado verano en Saratoga. Backyard Heaven es el menos corrido del grupo, habiendo participado solamente cinco veces, ganando tres de ellas incluyendo el Grado 2 Alysheba Stakes Presentado por Sentient Jet en Mayo.Tapwrit consiguió su triunfo más meritorio hace 14 meses en el 2017 Belmont Stakes Presentado por NYRA Bets y está sin ganar en tres carreras desde entonces. Dalmore no ha ganado un clásico de grado desde su victoria en el Grado 3 Affirmed Stakes en Julio de 2016 pero recientemente ha sido segundo en el Grado 3Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap y podría estar doblando la esquina. McCraken, quien ganara el 2017 Grado 3 Matt Winn Stakes y quien fuera segundo a nariz en el Grado 1 Haskell Invitational Stakes el pasado verano, finalizó recientemente tercero (detrás de  Dalmore) en el Cornhusker. Discreet Lover completa el lote siendo su triunfo más importante el que llegó en Abril  sobre esta distancia en el Grado 3 Excelsior Stakes, pero no ha sido rival de riesgo en cuatro carreras clásicas desde entonces.

Saratoga: An Unforgettable Celebration of Horse Racing from America's Best Racing on Vimeo.

Yo creo firmemente que Backyard Heaven está listo para su gran momento y que puede dar una mediana sorpresa en el Whitney Stakes de este año. En este grupo de ocho caballos, hay tres de ellos que han mostrado tendencia a ir rápido a la punta — Diversify, Dalmore, y Backyard Heaven, pero ya que Backyard Heaven parte por el interior entre ese trío, yo sospecho que su jinete Javier Castellano usará dicha posición en su favor. Si Castellano y Backyard Heaven consiguen la punta desde la partida aunque sea por un pequeño margen, ello forzaría a que Dalmore y Diversify (y sus jinetes) corran a su lado tratando de obtener el comando. Eso parecería una improbable ocurrencia ya que ocasionaría que sus cabalgaduras agoten energía inicial para lograrlo, lo cual les pasaría factura más tarde, ya que haciendo eso tal vez ganen la batalla, pero al final perderían la guerra. Más bien, a Backyard Heaven se le permitiría controlar el tren de carrera y este muy poco corrido 4-años-de edad debería ser capaz de mejorar la mejor Figura Equibase de Velocidad de su campaña, un 116, obtenida cuando ganó el Alysheba Stakes en Mayo. Además del probable beneficio del desarrollo, Backyard Heaven tiene otro factor apuntado directamente al triunfo, el cual es que según el ángulo de Stats Race Lens se muestra que los caballos ganaron un 29 por ciento de las veces el último año cuando el entrenador Chad Brown cambió de jinete hacia Castellano, quien estará corriendo por primera vez a Backyard Heaven.

Mind Your Biscuits es un caballo consumado con premios ganados por $3,939,286, muchos de los cuales fueron conseguidos al ganar por dos años consecutivos el Grupo 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen en Dubai. Reapareció luego de su triunfo de este año para correr una de las mejores pruebas de su campaña en el Metropolitan Handicap en Junio, perdiendo por nariz con  una figura de 118. Aunque Mind Your Biscuits nunca ha corrido dos curvas, ha corrido bien sobre una milla. Por las estadísticas de Stats Race Lens que consideran a otras crías de su padre, Posse, Mind Your Biscuits no debería tener problema con la distancia de 1 1/8-de milla ya que los otros hijos e hijas de su padre tienen un récord muy bueno de 10 sobre 18 en la distancia en carreras clásicas. Por tanto, si consigue el triunfo, Mind Your Biscuits tiene gran chance de superar la barrera de los $4.5-millones en sumas ganadas.

Diversify ha demostrado que, aunque él prefiere estar en punta desde el inicio, él no necesita la punta para ganar. Entre sus nueve triunfos en 14 carreras en su campaña, Diversify consiguió siete de ellos estando en punta desde que sonó la campana de largada, pero asimismo corrió bien fuera de la punta cuando ganó el Commentator Stakes en Mayo y el Saginaw Stakes el pasado Julio. Luego del Saginaw, Diversify consiguió una tras otra figuras de 119 cuando ganó el Evan Shipman Stakes y el Jockey Club Gold Cup. Llegando al Whitney Stakes luego de un par de triunfos, incluido el Suburban Stakes el mes pasado sobre 1 ¼ de milla, Diversify tiene el potencial de repetir su hazaña de tres triunfos al hilo que consiguiera el año pasado.

El resto del grupo del Whitney (con su más representativa Figura Equibase de Velocidad): Dalmore (112), Discreet Lover (114), Good Samaritan (116), McCraken (111) y Tapwrit (111). 

Candidatos al Triunfo:

Backyard Heaven

Mind Your Biscuits

Diversify

Coming Up

Forte Formidable in Florida Derby, But Several Runners Have Upset Potential

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