Dan's Double: Strike Early, Finish Strong at Kentucky Downs

Gambling
Thrilling finish of the 2017 Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes at kentucky Downs (Reed Palmer Photography/Kentucky Downs)

Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America's Best Racing's New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the brightest young minds in the game.

Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016 but was in the red for 2017. How will he do in 2018? To find out and to play along, come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.


Saturday, Sept. 8

First and last race at Kentucky Downs

Kentucky Downs, Race 1, 2:25 p.m. ET

#4 Prima Valentina: This filly has some win-early pedigree and she’s trained by Eoin Harty, who can have a young horse ready to win over the grass — he also strikes at a solid 27-percent clip with second-time starters. Prima Valentina finished third in her debut. The horse who finished second in that race came back to win her next start. She’s well rested and you’ve got to believe they saved her for this spot, the only maiden special weight they were going to find with a $130,000 purse.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$2 win, place, show on #4 Prima Valentina ($6)

$1 exacta: 3,4 over 3,4,12 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$5 win, place, show on #4 Prima Valentina ($15)

$1 exacta key box: 4 with 1,3,6,11,12 ($10)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$10 win, place, show on #4 Prima Valentina ($30)

$2 exacta key box: 4 with 1,3,6,11,12 ($20)

Kentucky Downs, Race 10, $750,000 Calumet Farm Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes, 6:59 p.m. ET

#12 Big Bend: This horse ran arguably his best race at Kentucky Downs last September, winning a $350,000 stakes race at odds of more than 7-1. You’ll get a similar price on him Saturday since he’s been off form dating to October 2017. But if you watch his last few races, he’s shown gradual improvement, despite having finished no better than fourth in his last five races. This horse’s dam (mother) has only produced one other runner who has raced on this unique Kentucky Downs course and that’s Taralena, who also ran extremely well on the surface. The dam has also hits at a 29-percent clip with runners going 1 ¼ miles or longer, so no distance concerns here.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$2 win, place, show on #12 Big Bend ($6)

$1 exacta: 6,12 over 6,10,12 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$4 win, place, show on #12 Big Bend ($12)

$1 exacta box: 3,6,10,12 ($12)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$8 win, place, show on #12 Big Bend ($24)

$1 exacta box: 3,6,10,12 ($12)

$.50 trifecta: 6,12 with 3,6,10,12 with 3,6,7,9,10,12 ($12)

YTD BANKROLL: -$1,407.80

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