Dan’s Double: In Search of Saturday Score at Saratoga

Gambling
A fan at Saratoga double-checks his tickets before a race. (Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)

Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America's Best Racing's New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

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Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016 but was in the red for 2017. How will he do in 2018? To find out and to play along, come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.


Saturday, Aug. 18

Saratoga Race Course, Race 4, 2:41 p.m. ET

#9 High Sheriff: We came close to making a big score last week playing these same connections with a second-time starter on the dirt at Saratoga. The profile on that horse, Derby Date, was similar to this one in that he showed speed in his career debut and faded. High Sheriff comes back, moves over to the dirt, and will receive Lasix (furosemide) for the first time for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas and Calumet Farm. Having that initial race under his belt should work to High Sheriff’s advantage in this spot, facing a quartet of first-time starters.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$2 win, place, show on #9 High Sheriff ($6)

$1 exacta: 6,9 over 1,6,9 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$4 win, place, show on #9 High Sheriff ($12)

$1 exacta box: 1,2,6,9 ($12)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$10 win and $5 to place, show on #9 High Sheriff ($20)

$1 exacta key box: 9 with ALL ($18)

$1 exacta box: 1,2,6,9 ($12)

Saratoga Race Course, Race 8, $300,000 Lake Placid Stakes, 5:02 p.m. ET

#4 Significant Form: After a quick start as a 2-year-old and then starting off her 2018 season on a high note, Significant Form has run into a bit of hard luck. In reality, she’s been stung by misfortune from day one — like when she was much the best in her career debut, winning at Saratoga, but then got disqualified for interfering with another horse. Including that race, she hasn’t been beaten to the finish line by any horse in three starts at 1 1/16 miles. This spot is slightly longer — 1 1/8 miles — but it should still be well within her range, and certainly an easier task than the 1 ¼ miles she ran last out. Her biggest threat would seem to be Rushing Fall but that filly has been out for three months and has had her return to the races delayed a couple of times due to a fever and other issues. I’ll take a shot against her here, even though she might be the most talented horse in this field.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$2 win, place on #4 Significant Form ($4)

$1 trifecta key: 4 over 1,2,6 ($6)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$5 win, place on #4 Significant Form ($10)

$1 trifecta key: 4 over 1,2,6 ($6)

$2 exacta: 4 over 2,6 ($4)

$1 exacta key box: 1 over 4,6 ($4)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$10 win, place on #4 Significant Form ($20)

$2 trifecta key: 4 over 1,2,6 ($12)

$4 exacta: 4 over 2,6 ($8)

$2 exacta key box: 1 over 4,6 ($8)

YTD BANKROLL: -$1,001.70

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