Dan's Double: Pricey Debut, Keeneland Comeback

Eclipse Sportswire

Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America's Best Racing's New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

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Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016 but was in the red for 2017. How will he do in 2018? To find out and to play along, come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.

Saturday, Oct. 13

Keeneland, Race 7, 4:24 p.m. ET

#11 Tapit Wise: This is the kind of race where it really pays to be using a past performance program like STATS Race Lens. Utilizing the various search functions, Tapit Wise is a standout on several fronts here including his win-early pedigree and how well trainer Tom Amoss does with young horses. Over the past two years, he’s won with an astounding 41 percent of his 2-year-old starters in dirt sprints; Amoss wins with 24 percent of first-time starters. This is a $700,000 son of Tapit, whose progeny win at 21 percent clip in their first race. The dam has produced several horses who won early, including stakes winner Wicked Mizz and graded stakes-placed Ash Zee. All signs, including a steady set of works coming in, point to a huge effort on debut here for Tapit Wise.

$10 Budget
$5 to win on #11 Tapit Wise ($5)
$5 exacta 11 with 4 ($5)

$25 Budget
$5 win and place on #11 Tapit Wise ($10)
$.10 superfecta 11 with 4,7,9,12 with 4,5,7,9,12 with ALL ($14.40)

$50 Budget
$10 win and place on #11 Tapit Wise ($20)
$.10 superfecta 11 with 4,7,9,12 with 4,5,7,9,10,12 with ALL ($18)
$2 exacta key box 11 with 4,9,12 ($12)

Keeneland, Race 8, 4:57 p.m. ET

#4 Socata: Gonna go with one who should be a pretty big price here. It’s a tough spot for a maiden winner but Socata had been running pretty well before a poor effort when last seen in July. She’s got some early speed and, coming back fresh from a long break for trainer Charlie Lopresti, I’d expect she’ll be sent from the gate. We’re basically looking for her to take a step forward after some time away and her speed could be an asset in this spot, in a race where the other logical contenders have done their running from off the pace.

$10 Budget
$2 win, place and show on #4 Socata ($6)
$1 exacta 4,11 with 4,5,11 ($4)

$25 Budget
$4 win, place and show on #4 Socata ($12)
$1 exacta box 4,5,7,11 ($12)

$50 Budget
$6 win, place and show on #4 Socata ($18)
$1 exacta box 4,5,7,11 ($12)
$.10 superfecta 4,11 with 4,7,10,11 with 4,5,7,9,10,11 with ALL ($19.20)

YTD BANKROLL: -$1,426.10

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