Dan's Double: Price Plays for Aqueduct Stakes

Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing

Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America's Best Racing's New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

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Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016 but was in the red for 2017. How will he do in 2018? To find out and to play along, come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.

Saturday, Dec. 1

Aqueduct, Race 6, $250,000 Go For Wand Handicap, 2:06 p.m. ET

#8 Pacific Wind: Hoping to catch a little bit of a price on this filly who comes in off of several tests against much tougher horses. Last out in the Spinster at Keeneland, she ran up against a peaking Blue Prize and had to do decent amount of work to get over from a wide post and then find running room down at the rail. Her two races at a mile were her two best, capturing an allowance at Keeneland by more than eight lengths and winning the Ruffian Stakes at Belmont earlier this year. There’s a whole lot of speed for her to track in this spot. Expect a good bounce-back effort from Marley’s Freedom but Pacific Wind will be right with her in the late stages.

$10 Budget

$2 win, place, and show on #8 Pacific Wind ($6)

$2 exacta box 1,8 ($4)

$25 Budget

$5 win, place, and show on #8 Pacific Wind ($15)

$5 exacta box 1,8 ($10)

$50 Budget

$10 win, $5 place and show on #8 Pacific Wind ($20)

$20 exacta 8 with 1 ($20)

$10 exacta 1 with 8 ($10)

Aqueduct, Race 9, $750,000 Cigar Mile Handicap presented by NYRA Bets, 3:45 p.m. ET

#6 True Timber: Let’s be honest — if Mendelssohn gets loose on the lead and runs his race, he absolutely towers over this field from a class perspective and could crush them. However, considering the strenuous nature of his 2018 campaign, his propensity to cough up the lead (this a shorter race, to be fair) and the fact that he’ll face pressure from Patternrecognition to his outside, there’s a case to be made for playing against Mendelssohn. When I was looking for the horse who could potentially have the best stalking trip — and a horse that might be cycling in to a top race — True Timber stood out. I think he’ll get the trip and he’s proven to be a much better horse since coming back off of a short layoff this spring. Don’t forget that he beat Patternrecognition back in June in a second-off-the-layoff allowance at Belmont. This is his second start off of a short freshening and we don’t really know what he’s capable of in a spot like this — unlike shorter-priced foes like Sunny Ridge and Timeline who haven’t gotten the job done in graded stakes company in recent attempts.

$10 Budget

$2 win, place, and show on #6 True Timber ($6)

$1 exacta key box 6 with 1,3 ($4)

$25 Budget

$4 win, place, and show on #6 True Timber ($12)

$1 exacta key box 6 with 1,3,5,8 ($8)

$2 exacta box 1,6 ($4)

$50 Budget

$8 win, place, and show on #6 True Timber ($24)

$1 exacta key box 6 with 1,3,5,8 ($8)

$1 trifecta 1,6 with 1,3,6 with 1,3,5,6,8 ($16)

YTD BANKROLL: -$1,459.55

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