Dan's Double: Longshots to Consider on Pegasus Day at Gulfstream

Gambling
Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing

Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America's Best Racing's New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

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Saturday, January 27

Gulfstream Park, Race 11, $125,000 South Beach Stakes

#1 Westit: She ate up a ton of ground in the Tropical Park Oaks last out (watch the replay if you can). Her Equibase Speed Figures have all been mid-to-high 90s since coming over from France and her worst effort was over soft ground in the Mrs. Revere Stakes. If she can get the firm turf we’d expect her to get on Saturday, with a moderately fast pace to close into, she could be extremely dangerous at a big price. I also like that Nik Juarez takes the mount for trainer Graham Motion. Based on STATS Race Lens research, over the past two years in stakes races, Juarez has won with three of the six horses he’s been on for Motion. That’s really solid.

$10 Budget

$1 exacta 1,9,11 with 1,6,9,11 ($9)

$25 Budget

$4 win, place and show on #1 Westit ($12)

$1 exacta box 1,6,9,11 ($12)

$50 Budget

$5 win, place and show on #1 Westit ($15)

$1 exacta box 1,6,8,9,11 ($20)

$5 double 1 with 5,6,10 ($15)

Gulfstream Park, Race 12, $16 million Pegasus World Cup

#6 Gunnevera: This horse hasn’t been able to break through yet in a big spot since his Fountain of Youth win at Gulfstream early last year. But when you consider that in the Breeders’ Cup Classic it was Gun Runner, Collected, and West Coast who ran 1-2-3 all the way around the track, Gunnevera can be forgiven for not having a bigger impact on the race with his deep-closing style. They went fast up front in the Classic, and they just didn’t back up. Gunnevera was up against it there, and he was up against it in the Travers when West Coast walked on the front end. Both of those races were at a longer 1 1/4-mile distance. If you want to argue that Gunnevera flattened late, then he should appreciate the cutback to 1 1/8 mile here. Gunnevera also had a wide post position in both of those key races. While post position might not impact a closer as much as a speed horse, Gunnevera still had to get toward the inside, lost ground around turns in both instances, and still came on late.

We know that Gunnevera likes Gulfstream and there’s also a ton of speed in this race. The pace scenario should break his way here and he’ll have the hottest jockey on the planet riding him for the first time, Luis Saez.

$10 Budget

$5 to win on #6 Gunnevera ($5)

$2 exacta box 6,10 ($4)

$25 Budget

$5 to win on #6 Gunnevera ($5)

$1 trifecta 6,10 with 6,10 with all ($20)

$50 Budget

$5 to win, place and show on #6 Gunnevera ($15)

$1 trifecta 6,10 with 6,10 with all ($20)

$1 exacta 5,6,10 with 4,5,6,9,10,11 ($15)

2018 ROI: -$299.60

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