Dan's Double: Big Value on Preakness Undercard

Gambling
Fans at Pimlico cheer home a winner during Preakness Stakes weekend in 2017. (Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)

Dan’s Double of the week, featuring handicapping analysis from America's Best Racing's New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – is one of the brightest young minds in the game.

Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016 but was in the red for 2017. How will he do in 2018? To find out and to play along, come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.


Saturday, May 19

Race 8, Pimlico, $200,000 Chick Lang Stakes

#6 Run Away: This race appears to be loaded with speed, so naturally I’ve got my eyes on a horse who might be flying late rom off the pace. Run Away has kept good company dating back to last summer, having won the Best Pal Stakes and then finishing third to Bolt d’Oro in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. He could get an absolute dream trip stalking the pacesetters and coming in fresh. STATS Race Lens research shows that over the past five years, horses trained by Simon Callaghan who’ve run in stakes races off of a 180-plus day layoff have finished in the money in 50% of their starts — 30% have won with a positive return on investment.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$5 win, place on #6 Run Away ($10)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$8 win, place, show on #6 Run Away ($24)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$15 win, place, show on #6 Run Away ($45)

Race 12, Pimlico, $100,000 Sir Barton Stakes

#6 Dream Baby Dream: This is another horse who has been keeping good company, having recently been flattered by New York Central’s runner-up finish in the Pat Day Mile Stakes Presented by LG and E and KU. New York Central finished well behind Dream Baby Dream in the Sunland Derby in March. Back in February, New York Central won an allowance race on a muddy track in which Dream Baby Dream finished third after not having the best of trips. It’s a good sign that jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. opts for the ride here on Dream Baby Dream over Title Ready, who’s listed at a shorter price on the morning line.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$2 win, place, show on #6 Dream Baby Dream ($6)

$1 exacta 2,6 with 2,6,8 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$4 win, place, show on #5 Dream Baby Dream ($12)

$1 exacta box: 2,6,8 ($6)

$1 trifecta box: 2,6,8 ($6)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$6 win, place, show on #5 Dream Baby Dream ($18)

$2 exacta box: 2,6,8 ($12)

$2 trifecta box: 2,6,8 ($12)

$4 exacta box: 2,6 ($8)

2018 ROI: -$771.45

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