Making Money Betting Arrogate in the Dubai World Cup

Gambling
Arrogate, above on the racetrack at Meydan, is the overwhelming favorite for the 2017 Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline. (Dubai Racing Club/Neville Hopwood)

Just how talented is Arrogate ? I’m not sure anyone knows for certain, because the lightly raced colt has been nothing short of sensational in his last three starts while setting records and earning speed figures that have rarely been achieved by a horse of his age.

As a result, he will be a heavy favorite to win the $10 million, Group 1 Dubai World Cup sponsored by Emirates Airline at Meydan in Dubai, a 2,000-meter (about 1 ¼-mile) race scheduled for March 25.

It all started when Arrogate won the historic Grade 1 Travers Stakes by a record-setting 13 ½ lengths. He also smashed a 37-year-old track record by more than half a second, completing the 1 ¼-mile distance in 1:59.36, while earning a massive 122 Beyer Speed Figure. Two months later, he reeled in Horse of the Year California Chrome to win the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic in a terrific performance that garnered a 120 Beyer.

Arrogate at Meydan (Dubai Racing Club/Mathea Kelley)

Most recently, Arrogate won the $12 million, Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes at Gulfstream Park, racing close to a fast pace and utilizing his tremendous stamina to pull away in the homestretch and win by 4 ¾ lengths over Shaman Ghost, who came right back to win the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap earlier this month. Arrogate’s final time of 1:46.83 was a track record and translated to a huge 119 Beyer.

To put it simply, Arrogate is a rare talent with the potential to stamp himself as an all-time great racehorse. Furthermore, his two best races have come at 1 ¼ miles — the same distance as the Dubai World Cup — and after drawing post-position nine in a full field, Arrogate should be able to work out a perfect trip. Even with the question mark of shipping halfway around the world to compete at an unfamiliar track, it’s difficult to envision Arrogate losing in the Dubai World Cup.

Therefore, the best way to make a profit betting the race is to try and identify the horses most likely to finish behind Arrogate in the exacta or trifecta.

One of the leading candidates is #5 Gun Runner, who is in career-best form after winning the Grade 1 Clark Handicap in November and the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap on Feb. 20. His Razorback victory was achieved with impressive ease and in a fast time that yielded a 110 Beyer — well short of Arrogate’s best, but an impressive number nevertheless. The only concern is that Gun Runner might be a little better running shorter than 1 ¼ miles, although he did finish third in both the Travers and the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby at that distance.

#14 Mubtaahij and #12 Hoppertunity — the latter being Arrogate’s stablemate — finished second and third in the 2016 Dubai World Cup behind California Chrome and should have every chance to finish in the trifecta once again. Mubtaahij is particularly intriguing since he finished a sharp second in his prep race at Meydan on Feb. 23, even though his trainer stated beforehand that Mubtaahij was well short of peak fitness. With that race under his belt, Mubtaahij should be poised to take a step forward. His proven affinity for the track is a big positive.

If you want to include a couple of big longshots on your tickets, why not consider the half-brothers #4 Lani and #7 Awardee? These Japanese shippers are thoroughly proven on dirt, with Lani winning the 2016 United Arab Emirates Derby at Meydan and Awardee finishing second by a neck in the Group 1 Champions Cup in Japan. Awardee is reportedly training well and will have the great Japanese jockey Yutaka Take in the saddle, while Lani could be set to rebound after failing to contend in his prep race at Meydan earlier this month, when he finished sixth while trying to close ground on a speed-favoring track.

Coming from the perspective that Arrogate will be very difficult to beat, here’s how I would play the Dubai World Cup:

Wagering Strategy on a $15 Budget

$2 trifecta: 9 with 5,14 with 5,12,14 ($8)

$1 trifecta: 9 with 5,14 with 4,7 ($4)

$3 exacta: 9 with 12 ($3)

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$3 trifecta: 9 with 5,14 with 5,12,14 ($12)

$2 trifecta: 9 with 5,14 with 4,7 ($8)

$6 exacta: 9 with 12 ($6)

$2 exacta: 9 with 4,7 ($4)

Good luck, and enjoy the race!


$10 million Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline
March 25, 2017, Meydan Racecourse, Race 9

About 1 1/4M on the dirt

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

1

Apollo Kentucky

Christophe Lemaire

Kenji Yamauchi

2

Long River

Mickael Barzalona

Salem bin Ghadayer

3

Gold Dream

Joao Moreira

Osamu Hirata

4

Lani

Ryan Moore

Masahiro Matsunaga

5

Gun Runner

Florent Geroux

Steve Asmussen

6

Move Up

Adrie De Vries

Saeed bin Suroor

7

Awardee

Yutaka Take

Masahiro Matsunaga

8

Furia Cruzada

Antonio Fresu

Erwan Charpy

9

Arrogate

Mike Smith

Bob Baffert

10

Keen Ice

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

11

Neolithic

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

12

Hoppertunity

Flavien Prat

Bob Baffert

13

Special Fighter

Fernando Jara

Maria Ritchie

14

Mubtaahij

Christophe Soumillon

Mike de Kock

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