Keying Longshot Pavel in the Jim Dandy Stakes

July 27th, 2017 by J. Keeler Johnson

Pavel is a longshot with a chance in the Jim Dandy on Saturday. (BENOIT photo)

Racing fans across the country will turn their attention to the $600,000 Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets at Saratoga this Saturday, a 1 1/8-mile race that will pit the reigning Kentucky Derby winner against the reigning Preakness Stakes winner in an exciting showdown.

The Derby winner, of course, is #1 Always Dreaming. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the accomplished colt won four straight races earlier this year, culminating with eye-catching scores in the Grade 1 Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby, in which he tracked the leaders before pulling away to win decisively.

Always Dreaming (Eclipse Sportswire)

However, the two-week turnaround between the Derby and the Preakness proved troublesome for Always Dreaming, who faltered to finish eighth in the Preakness after dueling for the early lead. Capitalizing on that quick pace was #2 Cloud Computing, who settled three lengths back early on before rallying powerfully in the homestretch to win by a head in just the fourth start of his career.

Assuming that Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing run their best races, the Jim Dandy could very well turn out to be a match race. However, over the last 10 years, betting on Triple Crown race winners in their first start following the Triple Crown has not been a winning proposition—they tend to be heavily bet and don’t win often enough for the angle to be profitable. Since 2007, 23 individual Triple Crown race winners have continued racing after the Triple Crown season was over; of those 23 horses, 15 were beaten in their first post-Triple Crown run.

With this in mind, I’m going to seek a larger score in the Jim Dandy by including #4 Pavel. Trained by Doug O’Neill, Pavel has only run once so far, winning a maiden race at Santa Anita by 4 ½ lengths after dueling for the early lead. Visually, this was an impressive performance, and the final time produced strong speed figures of 97 (Beyer) and 95 (BRIS)—not all that far behind the best figures earned by Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing, and his Equibase Speed Figure of 105 is higher than the classic winners’ bests.

Better still, Pavel is bred to enjoy longer distances, so I believe he can show improvement while tackling 1 1/8 miles in the Jim Dandy. Drawing post position four should give him options to take the lead or stalk the pace, depending on how aggressive Always Dreaming is in the early stages, and if Pavel turns out to be the real deal, that versatility should put him in the position to win.

Since Pavel will be one of the longest shots in the race, let’s play him to win and also include him in the exacta and trifecta with the two favorites. This way, if Pavel finishes in the top three (with Always Dreaming and/or Cloud Computing ahead of him), we’ll be sure to cash a nice ticket.

Here’s how I would play the race:

Wagering Strategy on a $20 Budget

$8 to win on #4 Pavel ($8)

$3 exacta: 1,2 with 4 ($6)

$3 trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 4 ($6)

Good luck, and enjoy the race!