Dan's Double: Weekend Stakes at Charles Town

Gambling
Racing at Charles Town. (Eclipse Sportswire)

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Dan Tordjman, America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent, is one of the brightest young minds in the game.

Each Week, Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016. Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.

Saturday, April 22

Charles Town, Race 10, $100,000 Sugar Maple Stakes, 4:58 p.m. ET 

#6 Kinsley Kisses: It’s the biggest day of the spring in Charles Town, W.V., where a late Pick 4 highlights a card that features the $1.25 million Charles Town Classic (selection for that race below). That’s Race 11 on the card (the one that follows this one), so we’ll attempt to hit the Sugar Maple-Charles Town Classic double.

Kinsley Kisses looks like an absolute standout on class, dating back to some of her well-fought graded stakes tries last year. She’s never run a bad race at this seven-furlong distance, with the exception of the Test Stakes at Saratoga last August — a Grade 1 race that was much tougher than this one. That race was also loaded with speed that Kinsley Kisses couldn’t keep up with; here, she not only has the speed to dictate the pace, she draws an outside post in this small field which should give her some options. The only scenario in which she loses would be if she gets into a sustained battle with Ultimate Holiday. If she does, that could open the door for Mia Torri, who’ll be sitting just off of the pace.

Strategy on a $10 Budget  

$4 double 6 with 1,2 ($8)

$1 double 4 with 1,2 ($2)

Strategy on a $25 Budget  

$8 double 6 with 1,2 ($16)

$1 double 4,6 with 1,2,4,5 ($8)

Strategy on a $50 Budget 

$20 double 6 with 1,2 ($40)

$1 double 4 with 1,2 ($2)

$1 double 4,6 with 1,2,4,5 ($8)

Charles Town, Race 11, $1,250,000 Charles Town Classic, 5:35 p.m. ET 

#2 Sunny Ridge: It’s no secret that Charles Town is a track that favors speed and horses who can handle turns. Visually, it was pretty clear to me last year that Stanford was the type of horse who would excel over the track when he shipped in for the 2016 Charles Town Classic — especially when the race drew and he clearly appeared to be the lone speed in the race. This year, he’ll face a bit more pressure up front and it could cost him.

Both Matt King Coal and Cautious Giant have the speed to press Stanford and, if they do, I can really see it setting up well for Sunny Ridge. Despite winning his last two races with relative ease, Sunny Ridge may get overlooked in the betting. But not only do I like the likely pace scenario for him, he also ran one of his best career races over another “bullring” at Delta Downs in the Delta Downs Jackpot in 2015 (he was beaten just a neck by eventual Preakness and Haskell winner Exaggerator). He posted a career-best Equibase Speed Figure (111) and Beyer Speed Figure (99) following a short layoff last out. If he can build off of this in his second race back, he’ll be in good shape.

Lastly, don’t ignore Imperative, who won this race a few years back and has Javier Castellano riding and is due for a big race based on his one-good-one-bet pattern that dates back to his last seven races.

Strategy on a $10 Budget  

$2 exacta 1,2 with 1,2,5 ($8)

$1 exacta 5 with 1,2 ($2)

Strategy on a $25 Budget  

$2 exacta 1,2 with 1,2,5 ($8)

$2 exacta 5 with 1,2 ($4)

$1 trifecta 1,2 with 1,2,4,5 with 1,2,4,5 ($12)

Strategy on a $50 Budget 

$10 exacta box 1,2 ($20)

$2 exacta 1,2 with 1,2,5 ($8)

$2 exacta 5 with 1,2 ($4)

$1 trifecta 1,2 with 1,2,4,5 with 1,2,4,5 ($12)

$1 trifecta key 5 over 1,2,4 ($6)

Top Picks: 2/27

ROI: -$984.62

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