Dan’s Double: Sunday Stakes at Woodbine

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Fans celebrate the Queen's Plate at Woodbine. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Dan’s Double of the Week, featuring handicapping analysis from America's Best Racing's New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

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Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016. Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.

Sunday, July 2

Woodbine, Race 9, $175,000 Dance Smartly Stakes, 4:51 p.m. ET

#7 Belle de Nuit (15-1): I’ll be a wise guy and go with this longshot to kick off our weekly double. We know two things about her: She loves Woodbine and she’s fast. Both figure to favor her in this spot. #2 Involuntary may apply mild pressure but ultimately, I think those two will be one-two for a long while. Whether Belle de Nuit, a daughter of Galileo, can hold it together late – that remains to be seen.

Both #4 Rainha Da Bateria and #5 Suffused, classy and consistent mares, could run off with this on their best day. But the former’s poorest race came over this course and distance two races ago, and the latter appears perhaps a little less sharp than he was earlier in the year.

$10 Budget

$5 win and show on #7 Belle de Nuit ($10)

$25 Budget

$5 win, place and show on #7 Belle de Nuit ($15)

$1 exacta box 2,4,7 ($6)

$2 double 4,7 with 1 ($4)

$50 Budget

$8 win, place and show on #7 Belle de Nuit ($24)

$1 exacta box 2,4,7 ($6)

$1 double 2,4,7 with 1,11,12 ($9)

$5 double 4,7 with 1 ($10)

Sunday, July 2

Woodbine, Race 10, $1,000,000 Queen’s Plate Stakes, 5:26 p.m. ET

#1 Channel Maker (4-1): It seems like it’s said every year, but the Queen’s Plate looks like an especially wide-open race. Six of the 13 horses entered have run four times or fewer. My inclination in this race is to lean toward horses who’ve got some class to point to in their pedigree and in their short racing history. #1 Channel Maker checks both of those boxes – it also doesn’t hurt when you see a trainer like Bill Mott ship up for a local prep, presumably gunning for this spot with Channel Maker. The horse ran a respectable 7th in a 14-horse Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall. More mixed results have followed, but his last two races point to an upward trend, both on speed figures and how he’s been finishing.

Don’t shy away from throwing in a few longshots because you can rest assured that there will be at least one or two big prices to spice up the trifecta. #12 Tiz a Slam is intriguing at 10-1 on the morning line. I’d also take a close look at #11 Aurora Way, who won professionally on his debut last out. I would imagine jockey Julien Leparoux could’ve made a case to ride the more proven #7 State of Honor, but instead he curiously lands on Aurora Way.

$10 Budget

$1 exacta box 1,11,12 ($6)

$4 to win on #1 Channel Maker ($4)

$25 Budget

$1 exacta box 1,7,11,12 ($12)

$6 to win and place on #1 Channel Maker ($12)

$50 Budget

$1 trifecta 1 over 11,12 over 1,3,7,11,12 ($8)

$1 exacta box 1,7,11,12 ($12)

$15 to win and place on #1 Channel Maker ($30)

Top Picks: 5/48

ROI: - $872.90

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