Dan's Double: Plenty of Promise at Penn National

Gambling
Racing fan cheers home a winner. (Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Dan Tordjman, America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent, is one of the brightest young minds in the game.

Each Week, Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016. Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.


Saturday, June 3

Penn National Race Course, Race 6, $200,000 Pennsylvania Oaks, 6:10 p.m. ET

#7 Adorable Miss: This lightly raced filly has done nothing wrong in her first two career starts and again secures the services of the best rider on the planet Javier Castellano. The jockey was aboard for Adorable Miss’ debut win at Gulfstream Park. The third-place finisher out of the race came back to win in her next two races and most recently was seen in graded stakes company at Churchill Downs.

STATS Race Lens also lit up with green lights (indicators of positive return on investment) for two angles in which trainer Todd Pletcher tends to have more success than usual: bringing horses back for the second race off the layoff and going to Castellano. If you’re looking for a price to spice up your exotics, consider #6 Spanish Harlem, who won in a field of three horses last time out ... but she won by nearly 30 lengths. She was also meant for turf in the race before it washed off, and is bred to go long on the turf as a daughter of More Than Ready.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 to win on #7 Adorable Miss ($10)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$10 to win on #7 Adorable Miss ($10)

$10 exacta: 7 over 6 ($10)

$2 exacta: 4,6 over 7 ($4)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$30 to win on #7 Adorable Miss ($30)

$10 exacta: 7 over 6 ($10)

$1 trifecta: 6,7 over 4,6,7 over 1,4,6,7 ($8)

Penn National Race Course, Race 7, $200,000 Pennsylvania Governor’s Cup, 6:40 p.m. ET

#4 Take Cover: This horse won this race last year in his second race off a layoff while posting a career-best 112 Equibase Speed Figure and 95 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s making his second start off nearly a six-month break coming into this year’s running of the race, and his first race back was a none-too-shabby fourth-place finish in the Jim McKay Turf Sprint (he was also forced to rally wide in that one and closed a lot of ground late).

Research on STATS Race Lens shows that trainer Alan Goldberg has won with 7 of 26 starters (a solid 27%) in stakes races, second-off the layoff. Of those 26 starters, 15 have hit the board. I don’t see many others in here who scare from a class perspective, with the possible exception of #1 Ready for Rye. But from the rail and off a six-month layoff, he’ll have to be at his best. #2 Richard’s Boy holds the benefit of recent form over the rest of these, but he’s also drawn inside and should get challenged on the front end by #5 Heiko.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$2 win, place and show on #4 Take Cover ($6)

$2 exacta box: 4,7 ($4)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$5 win, place and show on #4 Take Cover ($15)

$2 exacta box: 4,7 ($4)

$1 trifecta box: 2,4,7 ($6)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$10 win, place and show on #4 Take Cover ($30)

$5 exacta box: 4,7 ($10)

$1 trifecta: 4,7 with 2,4,7 with 2,4,7,9 ($8)

Top Picks: 5-for-39

Return on Investment: - $1,069.90

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