When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Dan Tordjman, America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent, is one of the brightest young minds in the game.

Each Week, Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016. Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.

Saturday, April 29

Churchill Downs, Race 8, 9:39 p.m. ET 

#3 Miss Kentucky: We’ll go for a natural double this week (picking races 8 and 9) on opening night at Churchill Downs — exactly one week from the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands. If you’ve been following this weekly post, I apologize. Simply put, I have been ice cold. We’ve had quite a few runners-up but no winners to speak of in recent weeks. While that’s partly due to the fact that we don’t pick any logical short-priced favorites, there are no excuses — we need to snap this skid and we need to do it now.

Miss Kentucky comes out of the kind of debut race that I always take a closer look at when the trip notes read “dueled … weakened.” A lot of times, horses who go too fast on debut, with pressure, return with a deeper foundation and take more dramatic steps toward improvement than a horse who was never part of the action in their first career start. Additionally, with Miss Kentucky, she returned to training with three extremely solid workouts coming out of her debut. There are a lot of positive signs, including Brian Hernandez taking the mount for trainer Rusty Arnold — the two have combined for 30% win rate over the past year at Churchill Downs.

Betting Strategy on a $10 Budget

$2 win, place and show on #3 Miss Kentucky ($6)

$2 Daily Double 3 with 1,4 ($4)

Betting Strategy on a $25 Budget

$4 win, place and show on #3 Miss Kentucky ($12)

$1 exacta box 3,5,12 ($6)

$2 Daily Double 3 with 1,4,6 ($6)

Betting Strategy on a $50 Budget

$10 win, place and show on #3 Miss Kentucky ($30)

$2 exacta box 3,5,12 ($12)

$2 Daily Double 3 with 1,4,6 ($6)

Churchill Downs, Race 9, $100 William Walker Stakes, 10:11 p.m. ET

#4 The Money Monster: Those who know me are probably aware of that fact that I’ve been a huge fan of the favorite in this race, #1 Syndergaard. He’s got blazing gate speed and posted dominant wins in his first two career starts before finishing second to Kentucky Derby contender Practical Joke in the Champagne Stakes, and then fading after setting the pace in the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I think the horse is legit though, and in much more realistic territory cutting back to six furlongs here, rather than going around two turns. That said, there are larger targets for sprinters later this spring and summer, and if I’m going to take a shot against Syndergaard it’s going to be off of a 5-month break (although trainer Todd Pletcher has a solid 23% hit rate in dirt sprints, coming off of this kind of layoff).

The horse that I’ve landed on is The Money Monster. This horse posted a nice number when he won his career debut and then came back to win the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. When he was last seen, he was pulled up in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby and never completed the race — not sure what happened there. What you can be fairly confident about is the judgement of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who wouldn’t bring a horse back in a spot like this unless he was fit and the Tampa Bay Derby was simply a fluke. Using STATS Race Lens, I pulled up some numbers for Mott horses dropping down in class and cutting back in distance — his win percentage is above average, with a positive ROI (return on investment). Also encouraging is second-best workout posted by The Money Monster 10 days ago. He should also benefit if a horse like #3 En Hanse is able to keep sustained pressure on Syndergaard.

$10 Budget

$2 win, place and show on #4 The Money Monster ($6)

$2 exacta box 1,4 ($4)

$25 Budget

$4 win, place and show on #4 The Money Monster ($12)

$2 exacta box 1,4 ($4)

$1 trifecta box 1,4,6 ($6)

$50 Budget

$8 win, place and show on #4 The Money Monster ($24)

$5 exacta box 1,4 ($10)

$2 exacta 6 over 1,4 ($4)

$2 trifecta box 1,4,6 ($12)