Dan's Double: Gulfstream Park Picks

Gambling
Christina Moore/America's Best Racing

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Dan Tordjman, America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent, is one of the brightest young minds in the game.

Each Week, Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016. Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.

Saturday, March 4

Gulfstream Park, Race 13, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes, 6:05 p.m. ET

#5 Beasley (6-1): All of the hype entering this race surrounds Holy Bull Stakes winner #8 Irish War Cry. Taking nothing away from the promising colt, he still has a lot to prove just three races into his bright young career. I’ll be interested in seeing how he reacts to early pace pressure from speedsters #7 Three Rules and #10 Takaful.

That said, I’m going to take a shot with another horse who has improved in each of his first three career races — #5 Beasley. His Equibase Speed Figures have gradually climbed, topping out at a 106 last out, which is only topped by Irish War Cry’s 110 in the Holy Bull. Though he ran on the lead last out (before finally being collared in his first two-turn start by the highly-regarded Battalion Runner), Beasley showed the ability to rate two races back and figures to be sitting a nice stalking trip behind the speed in front of him.

He’s well drawn, comes in after firing a bullet last week and he seems to be generally trending in the right direction. He’s also one of the least exposed runners in the field. I respect #2 Gunnevera and wouldn’t be surprised if he again ran a big race. But I think that might only be good enough for a placing. #6 Practical Joke deserves respect based on his 2-year-old resume but this isn’t an easy spot off of a four-month layoff.

Strategy on $10 Budget

$5 win and place on #5 Beasley ($10)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$1 exacta box 2,5,8,11 ($12)

$6 win and place on #5 Beasley ($12)

Strategy on $50 Budget

$1 exacta box 2,5,8,11 ($12)

$1 trifecta 5,8 with 5,8,11 with 2,5,6,8,9,11 ($16)

$8 win, place and $6 to show on #5 Beasley ($22)

Sunday, March 5

Gulfstream Park, Race 7, 3:01 p.m. ET

#5 Dreamingofrosella (TBD): As a general rule, when I see a low level maiden claiming race where there might be an interesting first-time starter, I take a closer look. Here’s a classic example. This race is stacked with horses who haven’t been able to break through in multiple previous tries. With the exception of #4 Smart Jersey and #8 Mary Sue Weloveyou, most of these have already had a shot at this $12,500 level — and the results haven’t been overly impressive. With that in mind, we’ll go ahead and side with first-time starter #5 Dreamingofrosella.

What stands out about this filly is that she’s by Gemologist — whose progeny win 15 percent in their first-time start on the dirt — and her trainer Angel Rodriguez. Doing some quick research on STATS Race Lens, I found that he’s won at a stunning 31 percent clip with his first-time starters on the dirt, while hitting the board with eight of his prior 13 runners. Even more impressive, three of his last four first-time starters to win scored at odds of 7-1, 17-1 and 27-1. I’d hope for 37-1 here but that’s probably pushing it!

Strategy on $10 Budget

$2 win and place on #5 Dreamingofrosella ($4)

$1 exacta box 5,6,8 ($6)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$3 win and place on #5 Dreamingofrosella ($6)

$1 exacta box 5,6,8 ($6)

$1 trifecta 5,8 with 5,6,8 with 4,5,6,8,10 ($12)

Strategy on $50 Budget

$8 win, place and show on #5 Dreamingofrosella ($24)

$2 exacta box 5,6,8 ($12)

$1 trifecta 5,8 with 5,6,8 with 4,5,6,8,10 ($12)

YTD Top Picks: 2/16

ROI for All Bets: -$272.35

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