Dan's Double: Fall Stars Stakes Picks at Keeneland

Gambling
Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing

Dan’s Double of the Week, featuring handicapping analysis from America's Best Racing's New York correspondent Dan Tordjman, is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.

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Each Week, Tordjman will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016. Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.

Saturday, Oct. 7

Keeneland, Race 8, $500,000 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, 5:10 p.m. ET

#11 Captivating Moon: Here’s a sneaky little horse who I think we can get home at a pretty big price. This son of Malibu Moon was destined to end up on the dirt going long, and he gets that in his third career start on Saturday. After easily winning on debut over the turf, he came back in the Arlington-Washington Futurity last out and finished second to a nice-looking shipper. Captivating Moon broke poorly, was shuffled back on two occasions, rallied late (albeit, looking super green) and almost won.

Other factors that I like here, much of it thanks to research done on STATS Race Lens, are the precocity of the progeny of both his sire and dam (who has produced three in-the-money runners from three starters at 2). Among Malibu Moon’s 2-year-old stakes winners are Carina Mia, Farrell, Gormley, and, most recently, Moonshine Memories. Trainer Chris Block isn’t one to overshoot with his 2-year-olds either — of his 12 stakes starters at 2 over the past five years, he’s finished in the money seven times, while winning twice. He also hits the board at a 55 percent clip with his 2-year-olds in all races, having won with nearly 25 percent of them.

$10 Budget

$2 win, place, and show on #11 Captivating Moon ($6)

$1 exacta 9,11 over 4,9,11 ($4)

$25 Budget

$4 win, place, and show on #11 Captivating Moon ($12)

$1 exacta box 2,4,9,11 ($12)

$50 Budget

$8 win, place, and show on #11 Captivating Moon ($24)

$1 exacta box 2,4,9,11 ($12)

$.50 trifecta 9,11 over 4,9,11 over 1,2,3,4,7,8,9,11,13 ($14)

Keeneland, Race 9, $1 million Shadwell Turf Mile, 5:45 p.m. ET

#10 Heart to Heart: In a field full of extremely accomplished turf specialists, there are only a few in here that boast a stronger resume than this 6-year-old warrior. His game is pretty simple — if he gets to the lead early, he generally wins. He was taken a little out of his comfort zone when last seen at Keeneland in the spring. Were it not for a late surge by returning rival #14 American Patriot, Heart to Heart would’ve won the race despite sitting off of the speed of What a View (who set the early splits and then faded to sixth).

On paper, it certainly looks like Heart to Heart should be able to grab the lead early and I consider the switch to jockey Florent Geroux a positive one. Geroux has not only had success over this course, he’s one of the steadiest turf riders in the country.

$10 Budget

$2 win, place, and show on #10 Heart to Heart ($6)

$1 exacta 6,10 over 6,8,10 ($4)

$25 Budget

$4 win, place, and show on #10 Heart to Heart ($12)

$1 exacta 6,8,10 over 3,4,6,8,10 ($12)

$50 Budget

$8 win, place, and show on #10 Heart to Heart ($24)

$1 exacta 6,8,10 over 3,4,6,8,10 ($12)

$1 trifecta 10 over 6,8 over 2,3,4,6,7,8,11,14 ($14)

2017 ROI: -$4

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