Dan's Double: Belmont Day Picks

Gambling
Eclipse Sportswire

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Dan Tordjman, America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent, is one of the brightest young minds in the game.

Each Week, Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup. Dan was able to manage a positive ROI for his plays in 2016. Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.

Saturday, June 10

Belmont Park, Race 10, $1 million Woodford Reserve Manhattan Stakes, 5:37 p.m. ET

#4 Time Test: If you can get the 5-1 listed on the morning line, run to the windows. This horse makes his second U.S. start, and finished second previously by a nose in his first race after a 10-month layoff. That was a clear prep for this million-dollar spot — and few can set them up better for a race like this than trainer Chad Brown. Over the past five years, Brown has had 62 starters run in a Grade 1 in their second race off a layoff — more than half of those horses have hit the board and 21 percent of them have won.

Apart from the strength of the trainer and second start in the U.S. angles, Time Test is quite accomplished at this distance. He’s a multiple Group 3 and Group 1 winner in England, where he was last seen beating horses like Mondialiste. That should put him right there, at the very least, with the likes of #3 World Approval and #7 Divisidero. I’m not convinced that either of those two likely favorites prefer this distance either. #1 Beach Patrol is always super game and should be loose on the lead for a long while. #9 Sadler’s Joy is an improving type who could step up and run a big race here.

$10 Budget  

$4 win and place on #4 Time Test ($8)

$1 exacta box 4,9 ($2)

$25 Budget

$8 win and place on #4 Time Test ($16)

$1 exacta 1,4,9 with 1,4,5,9 ($9)

$50 Budget 

$1 trifecta 4,9 with 1,4,9 with ALL ($28)

$2 exacta box 1,4,9 ($12)

$5 win and place on #4 Time Test ($10)

Belmont Park, Race 11, $1.5 million Belmont Stakes presented by NYRABets, 6:37 p.m. ET 

#12 Patch: A top rider and a pedigree to make the distance — that’s all you’d ever want from a viable Belmont Stakes contender. Hall of Famer John Velazquez takes the mount, which is about as good as you can do for a jockey who knows how to ride this track and race. Velazquez even guided Patch’s sire (father), Union Rags, to victory in the 2012 Belmont Stakes. The colt is also out of an A.P. Indy mare and should be able to run all day.

The sentimental money was on this popular one-eyed horse in the Kentucky Derby, but he’ll probably take far less action in New York. Once again, he’s drawn wide, which doesn’t help his cause since the eye he’s missing in his left eye, meaning he won’t see horses inside of him from the break. That said, he’s got a ton of upside as one of the most lightly-raced horses in the field, and for the reasons outlined above. All of the rest of these are flawed in one way or another — I’m willing to proceed, even with Patch’s shortcomings.

$10 Budget  

$2 win, place and show on #12 Patch ($6)

$1 exacta 7,12 with 2,7,12 ($4)

$25 Budget  

$4 win, place and show on #12 Patch ($12)

$1 exacta box 2,4,7,12 ($12)

$50 Budget 

$5 win, place and show on #12 Patch ($15)

$1 exacta box 2,4,7,12 ($12)

$.10 superfecta 2,4,7,12 with 2,4,7,12 with 2,4,7,12 with ALL ($21.60)

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