Betting the Great Lady M Stakes on a Budget

July 7th, 2017 by Jose Contreras

Constellation, above left winning the Grade 1 La Brea, has a very good chance in Saturday’s Great Lady M Stakes at Los Alamitos. (Eclipse Sportswire)

The 2017 edition of the Great Lady M Stakes at Los Alamitos drew a field of seven, which includes last year’s winner Finest City, the reigning Eclipse Award winner as champion female sprinter.

Six of the seven fillies and mares in this field are stakes winners and three of them have earned more than half a million dollars.

Finest City used this race last year as a springboard to a 2016 campaign that led her to a victory in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. Last year, she went off at odds of 8.80-to-1, but you won’t be getting that good of a price this year. She’s the morning-line favorite at odds of 2-to-1. She was last seen chasing two top-quality mares in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile Stakes when finishing third behind Stellar Wind and Vale Dori. She’s proved much better sprinting than routing, so I expect her to run much better in this spot.

There are a few others that you could make a strong case for, but I gave the nod to Constellation. She has been terrific since arriving at the barn of Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer last year and just missed getting her second Grade 1 victory at Keeneland back in April. She’s shown the versatility to win on the lead or from off the pace, and that’s a very good weapon to have.

I also think Skye Diamonds is an interesting horse. Bill Spawr is excellent at spotting good claims and this filly enters this race in the best form of her career. She’s won 7-of-14 starts and four of those wins have come after being claimed by Spawr. She’s 3-for-4 at this distance and owns a win on this track. She’s got a good closing kick and this race could set up well for her.

How I envision the race unfolding: So Sweetitiz and Pretty N Cool should battle on the lead with Finest City just to their outside. So Sweetitiz and Pretty N Cool begin to fade in the long Los Alamitos stretch while Finest City begins to win the battle. Constellation and Skye Diamonds begin to make their moves sitting behind those pacesetters and Constellation takes the lead in the final yards to win.

Strategy on a $50 Budget:

$20 win on Constellation ($20)

$10 exacta: Constellation with Skye Diamonds ($10)

$10 exacta: Constellation with Finest City ($10)

$5 trifecta: 2 with 5,7 with 5,7 ($10)