Playing Probable Track Bias in Haskell Invitational

July 29th, 2016 by J. Keeler Johnson

Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist shakes his head during a bath at Monmouth Park. (Bill Denver/EQUI-PHOTO)

The $1 million betfair.com Haskell Invitational Stakes at Monmouth Park routinely draws a top-notch field, but the 2016 renewal might be one of the best ever, having attracted Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands winner Nyquist, Preakness Stakes winner Exaggerator and Louisiana Derby winner Gun Runner, the trio that swept the trifecta in the Kentucky Derby.

The Haskell is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic and will be televised live on NBC beginning at 5 p.m. ET on Sunday:

Separating the form of the key contenders is tricky, but the track might help us out. Monmouth Park routinely plays in favor of speed on the rail, as it did on Haskell day in 2014 and 2015, and that was certainly the case on Thursday, when four of the five dirt races were won in gate-to-wire fashion, with the runners-up routinely racing along the rail as well.

For this reason, drawing the rail might be perfect for Nyquist (#1), who has plenty of early speed and could get a dream trip racing on the inside. He’s been training beautifully for this race, culminating with a mile drill in 1:39 2/5 on July 24 at Del Mar. All signs indicate that he’s ready to rebound from his third-place finish in the Preakness Stakes.

The only question is whether Nyquist’s connections choose to rate him off the lead after an intense speed duel cost him any chance in the Preakness, in which case Nyquist might have to concede the valuable advantage of racing on the rail. If this turns out to be the case, then I think American Freedom (#5) will be the one to take advantage.

American Freedom jogging at Monmouth Park. (Bill Denver/EQUI-PHOTO)

Trained by Bob Baffert, who has won five of the last six editions of the Haskell, while finishing second in the other, American Freedom used his excellent early speed to win the Sir Barton Stakes and the Grade 3 Iowa Derby in front-running fashion. Reports indicate that American Freedom is training up a storm at Del Mar and ready for a huge effort. Baffert is never afraid to let his horses use their speed and play “catch me if you can,” and if American Freedom gets a clear lead on the rail, he could be very tough to reel in.

One horse that could be compromised by the track conditions is Exaggerator (#6), who has drawn the far outside post position. A highly accomplished runner with two Grade 1 wins under his belt, Exaggerator might be good enough to overcome the track on his best day, but the late change in plans to run in the Haskell rather than Saratoga’s Jim Dandy Stakes is a question mark, especially since trainer Keith Desormeaux was displeased with Exaggerator’s most recent workout at Saratoga and had considered not running him at all this weekend.

So let’s see if we can nail the Haskell Invitational trifecta by playing Nyquist and American Freedom on top while adding the speedy Gun Runner (#4), an impressive last-out winner of the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes, in second place:

Wagering Strategy A: Trifectas

$2 trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 2,3,4,6 ($16)

$1 trifecta: 1,5 with 4 with 1,5 ($2)

$1 trifecta: 1,5 with 4 with 2,3,6 ($6)

$1 trifecta: 1 with 5 with 4 ($1)

Wagering Strategy B: Superfectas

$1 superfecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 4 with 2,3,6 ($6)

$1 superfecta: 1,5 with 4 with 1,5 with 2,3,6 ($6)

$0.50 superfecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 2,3,6 with 2,3,4,6 ($9)

$0.50 superfecta: 1,5 with 4 with 2,3,6 with 1,5 ($3)

$0.50 superfecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 4 ($1)

Good luck, and enjoy the race!