The $300,000 Zenyatta Stakes, named after the 2016 Hall of Fame inductee who won her first 19 races, features a rematch of the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes in which champion Stellar Wind edged three-time champ Beholder.
On paper, the top two from the Clement Hirsch look like the best two horses in the five-horse field … and not by a little bit.
So, devising a betting strategy for this race really comes down to whether you think Stellar Wind (#5) has improved enough as a 4-year-old that she is now the better racehorse, or you believe Beholder (#2) was not at her best in the Hirsch and will gain a measure of revenge on Saturday in the Zenyatta Stakes.
As much as I respect Stellar Wind, I fall into the second category. Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella is a master at preparing racehorses for a target. He was always pointing toward the TVG Pacific Classic with Beholder and a shot at a repeat win in Del Mar’s signature race. For that reason, I don’t think he had Beholder fully cranked up for the Hirsch, preferring to have her run her best race in the Pacific Classic.
Beholder finished second to California Chrome in the Pacific Classic, beaten by five lengths, but posted her best Equibase Speed Figure and Beyer Speed Figure in that race since she won it a year before by 8 ¼ lengths. With six weeks rest between the Pacific Classic and the Zenyatta, I expect she’ll still be on top of her game and be extraordinarily tough to beat.
Stellar Wind has not raced since the Hirsch, but throughout her career she’s been especially effective when given plenty of rest between races. I expect her to run well, too, but it just feels like Beholder at her best deserves the edge in this race.
I feel pretty confident that Beholder and Stellar Wind will finish first and second in some order, so that’s how I’d suggest betting the race. Use Beholder over Stellar Wind in a straight exacta (by all means, flip the runners if you prefer Stellar Wind), and try to pick which of the three remaining runners has the best shot for third. For me, that’s the key to betting the race.
Of the remaining three entrants, Vale Dori (#3) offers the most upside, but Tara’s Tango (#4) offers the most consistency. I’m going to take a shot on Vale Dori for third because she has a little more early speed on a track that plays well for horses with a bit of zip, and the race is only 1 1/16 miles.
Betting Strategies on a $20 Budget:
Strategy A
$20 exacta — Beholder over Stellar Wind ($20)
Strategy B
$20 trifecta — Beholder over Stellar Wind over Vale Dori ($20)
