Los Ponies Longshots: FrontRunner Upset, Sunday Song

Gambling
Eclipse Sportswire

Welcome to Los Ponies Longshots! Each week, America’s Best Racing’s Southern California correspondent Jose Contreras – Los Ponies to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide two or three longshots at 8-to-1 odds or better on the morning line that he identifies as strong value bets. Contreras also will map out a betting strategy for how to play his selections and keep track of his return on investment (ROI).

Stop back each week if you love a longshot!

Saturday, Oct. 1

Santa Anita Park, Race 6, FrontRunner Stakes, 6:04 p.m. ET

#1 Gormley (8-1): He was visually impressive in his debut win when pulling away easily in the stretch. The trainer is not known for having debut winners, but this guy showed he was ready to go first time out. I like the confident move up in class to tackle graded stakes company in just his second start. He looked like a runner that would like the extra distance, and I think there is plenty of room for improvement.

Strategy on $10 Budget

$5 exacta: 1 with 5,6 ($10)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$10 win on Gormley ($10)

$1 exacta: 1 with 2,4,5,6,7 ($5)

$1 trifecta: 1 with 5,6 with 2,4,5,6,7  ($10)

Strategy on $50 Budget  

$10 win on Gormley ($10)

$1 trifecta: 1 with 2,4,5,6,7 with 2,4,5,6,7 ($20)

$1 trifecta: 2,4,5,6,7 with 1 with 2,4,5,6,7 ($20)

Sunday, Oct. 2

Santa Anita Park, Race 5, 5:30 p.m. ET

#2 Pacific Song (8-1): He hopped a bit at the start of his most recent race and was last early on after the gates open. He made a bit of a move around the turn, but the leaders were too far in front and he was left with too much to do after that slow beginning. He was coming into that race first off the claim for a sharp barn, and I think he was well meant that day. The winner of that race was much the best, but I think this guy would have been battling for second with a better start.

Strategy on $10 Budget

$1 exacta: 2 with 1,3,4,5,8 ($5)

$1 exacta: 1,3,4,5,8  with 2 ($5)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$5 win on Pacific Song ($5)

$.50 trifecta: 2 with 1,3,4,5,8 with 1,3,4,5,8 ($10)

$.50 trifecta: 1,3,4,5,8 with 2 with 1,3,4,5,8 ($10)

Strategy on $50 Budget

$10 win on Pacific Song ($10)

$1 trifecta: 2 with 1,3,4,5,8 with 1,3,4,5,8 ($20)

$1 trifecta: 1,3,4,5,8 with 2 with 1,3,4,5,8 ($20)

ROI Year to date: $5780 wagered/$3805.75 returned

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