The Grade 1, $1 million betfair.com Haskell Invitational Stakes at Monmouth Park features Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist and Preakness Stakes winner Exaggerator in their sixth meeting, with a spot in the Breeders' Cup Classic up for grabs. Nyquist won the first four of those bouts, including the Derby, before Exaggerator proved a sound victor in the Preakness.

However, this year's Haskell is decidedly not a two-horse race because Derby third-place finisher, Gun Runner, enters the race off a resounding win in the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes and up and coming star American Freedom just won the Grade 3 Iowa Derby in easy fashion. Sunny Ridge was beaten a neck by Exaggerator the only previous time they met and Awesome Slew missed second by a neck last month in the Grade 3 Pegasus Stakes in his first race around two turns.

Contenders, in preference order:

Gun Runner impressed visually and showed a heretofore not seen level of competitiveness when winning the Matt Winn Stakes last month with a career-best 114 Equibase Speed Figure. Leading from the start, Gun Runner repelled a strong challenge mid-race and drew off with a lot of gas left in the tank at the end. Winner of the Louisiana Derby in March at the distance of the Haskell, Gun Runner has now proven he can win on the lead or from off the pace and coming into the race with the best last-race figure in the field, appears capable of posting the upset.

Awesome Slew was running around two turns for the first time in his career last month in the Pegasus Stakes, in which he rallied from fourth in the early stages to make the lead with an eighth of a mile to go. He was passed by two horses late but fought right down to the wire for second, coming up a nose short of that position while earning a career-best 111 figure. The Pegasus was not only his first route, but only his second start back from a 10-month layoff. As such, he has a lot of improvement potential, not to mention he is one of only two horses to have won at Monmouth. He broke his maiden last June over the course and won his comeback in May, which could give Awesome Slew an edge over some of his competitors and help him outrun undeserved double digit odds.

American Freedom is another horse coming off a career-best effort (109 figure) and on a pattern to better it in the Haskell. He stretched out to two turns for the first time in his third career start winning the Sir Barton Stakes in May, before a win in the Iowa Derby by nearly five lengths. Being a horse that made his career debut in April of this year, American Freedom has come to hand very quickly and as his trainer, Bob Baffert, has won the Haskell in five of the last six years, he is another colt to consider seriously as a contender to win the race.

Neither Nyquist nor Exaggerator have any serious flaws, save for the fact that both enter the race off poor efforts compared to the improving patterns of each of the three main contenders above possess. Nyquist had his eight race unbeaten streak snapped by Exaggerator in the Preakness, before a slight illness that caused him to miss the Belmont, in which Exaggerator finished a poor 11th. Nyquist ran the best race of his career in the Derby with a 108 figure, while Exaggerator did the same in the Preakness with the same 108 figure, neither effort nor figure is the top in the field. To put it bluntly, both Nyquist and Exaggerator can win repeating their efforts one race before their most recent, but neither is a standout. Sunny Ridge earned a 106 figure winning the Withers Stakes in January before a fourth-place effort in the Gotham Stakes in March. He's been away from the races the longest of any of these horses so may be a bit short of fit enough to compete, but it must be noted he missed to Exaggerator in the Delta Jackpot Stakes last November over a muddy track, and like Exaggerator may really move up if the track is wet like it was that day.

My selections:
Gun Runner
Awesome Slew
American Freedom