Dan’s Double: Looking for Value on Million Day

Gambling
(Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)

When it comes to making money when handicapping races and betting on horse racing, it’s all about picking winners. Dan Tordjman, America’s Best Racing’s New York correspondent, is one of the brightest young minds in the game.

Each Week, Tordjman – DanonymousMan to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide readers with his two best bets of the weekend and strategies for how to bet them. Tordjman will keep track of his return on investment (ROI) throughout the year and, as a bonus, he will also provide picks for a selection of the key races on the Triple Crown trail and the road to the Breeders’ Cup.

Come back every week and be sure to follow Tordjman on Twitter.

Saturday, August 13, Arlington Race 8 (Grade 1 $700,000 Beverly D.)

#3 Marypop (30-1): Let’s face it, #13 Sea Calisi is going to be extremely difficult to beat. Our hope here is to find a horse who can inject some value into the exotics even if, or when, Sea Calisi wins. Marypop will surely be overlooked coming off of her fifth place finish in the Modesty last out but there were positives to take from that race. First off, she was well wide turning for him and took a little longer than the rest to get cranked up. It was her first start in the U.S. and she was bet down to odds of 3-to-1. There was clearly support on that day and Marypop deserved it, becoming a Group 3 winner in France in her prior race. High-percentage trainer Michael Stidham adds blinkers here (22% move for the barn) and the horse gets an upgrade in rider to top West Coast turf jockey Flavien Prat. Given the connections (the horse is owned Dick Duchossois who also co-owns Arlington) and the opportunity for improvement at second asking, Marypop is likely to represent some of the best value on the Arlington Million card Saturday.

Strategy on $10 Budget

$2 win, place and show on #3 Marypop ($6)

$1 exacta 3,13 over 3,6,13 ($4)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$1 exacta box 3,6,9,12,13 ($20)

$2 win and show on #3 Marypop ($4)

Strategy on $50 Budget

$1 exacta box 3,6,9,12,13 ($20)

$.50 trifecta 3,13 with 3,6,13 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,9,11,12,13,14 ($18)

$4 win, place and show on #3 Marypop ($12)

Sunday, August 7, Arlington Race 9 (Grade 1 $1-million Arlington Million)

#6 Kasaqui (20-1): In the much more wide-open Arlington Million, we’re going to go with another bomb and select Kasaqui. This horse has done very little wrong since making the trip over to the states from Argentina last year. You can rest assured that he’ll love every step of this distance (he’s won twice and has three runner-up finishes from five starts at a mile and a quarter) and he’s also proven over the Arlington turf. What he still needs to prove is that he can hang class-wise with this very accomplished field. He fell in his only other Grade 1 try at Churchill earlier this year, so there’s no telling what he might’ve done had he the opportunity to complete that race. Young trainer Ignacio Correas has been red hot of late and a win here would certainly put him on the map. Although his win last out was in Grade 3 company, that field was fairly deep and at morning line odds of 20-1, I’m going to take a fairly confident shot with Kasaqui.

Strategy on $10 Budget

$2 win, place and show on #6 Kasaqui ($6)

$1 exacta 6,11 over 6,10,11 ($4)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$1 exacta 6,10,11 over 4,5,6,9,10,11 ($15)

$3 win, place and show on #6 Kasaqui ($9)

Strategy on $50 Budget

$1 exacta 6,10,11 over 1,4,5,6,9,10,11,12,13 ($24)

$.50 trifecta 6,11 with 6,10,11 with 1,4,5,6,9,10,11,13 ($12)

$3 to win, $5 to place and $6 to show on #6 Kasaqui ($14)

ROI Year to date: $4,781.20 wagered/$5,154.50 returned (+$364.30 YTD)

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