Three Horses Capable of Upsetting American Pharoah in the Belmont

Gambling

Frosted has been training at Belmont Park since the Kentucky Derby and may pose a big threat to American Pharoah's Triple Crown chances. (Photos by NYRA)

The sporting world will be focused on New York’s Belmont Park on Saturday as American Pharoah attempts to become the 12th winner of horse racing’s Triple Crown by winning the 147th running of the Belmont Stakes. 

It has been 37 years since Affirmed captured the Triple Crown in 1978, and since that time 12 horses have come to New York with the opportunity to win the Belmont Stakes and become a Triple Crown winner, but each has failed. The list of horses who have been unable to complete the Triple Crown includes phenomenal Thoroughbreds such as Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, and Silver Charm.

TRIPLE CROWN BIDS ENDED IN BELMONT 

Year   Triple Crown hopeful    Belmont finish   Winner
2014 California Chrome 4th Tonalist
2008 Big Brown DNF Da’ Tara
2004 Smarty Jones 2nd Birdstone
2003 Funny Cide 3rd Empire Maker
2002 War Emblem 8th Sarava
1999 Charismatic 3rd Lemon Drop Kid
1998 Real Quiet 2nd Victory Gallop
1997 Silver Charm 2nd Touch Gold
1989 Sunday Silence 2nd Easy Goer
1987 Alysheba 4th Bet Twice
1981 Pleasant Colony 3rd Summing
1979 Spectacular Bid 3rd Coastal
1971 Canonero II 4th Pass Catcher
1969 Majestic Prince 2nd Arts and Letters
1968 #Forward Pass 2nd Stage Door Johnny
1966 Kauai King 4th Amberoid
1964 Northern Dancer 3rd Quadrangle
1961 Carry Back 7th Sherluck
1958 Tim Tam 2nd Cavan
1944 Pensive 2nd Bounding Home
1936 Bold Venture did not start Granville
1932 Burgoo King did not start Faireno

#Won Kentucky Derby via disqualification

Note: I'll Have Another was not included because he was retired before the Belmont Stakes. 

American Pharoah is an amazing racehorse, and the way he dominated in his Preakness victory left all horse racing fans, including myself, asking “could this finally be the one?”

Both American Pharoah’s trainer, Bob Baffert, and jockey, Victor Espinoza, are confident in their horse, and American Pharoah’s early speed will be a very big weapon on Saturday.  That being said, from a gambling perspective (and we are here to make money!), I am compelled to try to beat a horse who is 3-to-5 shot on the morning line and attempting to rewrite 37 years of history in the Belmont Stakes. For that reason, below are three horses I believe are capable of upsetting American Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes: 

#3 Madefromlucky: He looked like a new horse when he won the Peter Pan Stakes after trainer Todd Pletcher took the blinkers off for that race. Outstanding jockey Javier Castellano rode Madefromlucky for the first time in the Peter Pan, and he is back aboard for the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, so perhaps they make a good team together.  Madefromlucky finished second to American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby in April.

MADEFROMLUCKY (outside) WORKING AT BELMONT PARK LAST WEEK

#6 Frosted: Out of the 18 horses in the Kentucky Derby, Frosted was really the only horse positioned toward the back of the pack early to run well late in the race. Frosted shipped to Belmont Park after the Kentucky Derby, and he has trained at Belmont in the five weeks since the Kentucky Derby, so he may have a “home-court advantage” on his side. Another positive note for Frosted is that his trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and jockey Joel Rosario both have already won the Belmont Stakes in their careers.  

#8 Materiality: With only four races under his belt, Materiality is the least-experienced runner in the Belmont Stakes. He looked awesome over the winter in Florida, where he was 3-for-3, including a victory in the $1-million Besilu Stables Florida Derby. Materiality was completely taken out of his game after breaking badly from the gate forced him to run 13th early in the Kentucky Derby. He should be more effective while running closer to the pace in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday.

Wagering Strategy:

$10 exacta 6 with 5

$5 exacta 6 with 3

$5 exacta 6 with 8

$1.5 million Belmont Stakes
Saturday, June 6, Belmont Park, 6:50 p.m. ET
1 1/2 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
TV COVERAGE: 4:30-7 p.m. ET on NBC 

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

ML Odds

1

Mubtaahij

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Mike de Kock

Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum

 

10-1

2

Tale of Verve

Gary Stevens

Dallas Stewart

Charles Fipke

 

15-1

3

Madefromlucky

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

Cheyenne Stables and Mac Nichol

 

12-1

4

Frammento

Mike Smith

Nick Zito

Mossarosa

 

30-1

5

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables

 

3-5

6

Frosted

Joel Rosario

Kiaran McLaughlin

Godolphin Racing

 

5-1

7

Keen Ice

Kent Desormeaux

Dale Romans

Donegal Racing

 

20-1

8

Materiality

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

Alto Racing

 

6-1

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