Predicteform.com’s Upset Watch: Kentucky Derby

Gambling

Bolo exercises on the main track at Churchill Downs in preparation for Saturday's Kentucky Derby. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)

The $2-million Kentucky Derby is now hours - not days - away and just about everyone is looking for a longshot pick for the first jewel of the Triple Crown on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

This is one of the best fields assembled for the Kentucky Derby in recent memory, and the abundance of talent means bettors have a golden opportunity to find some value and make some money.

The Predicteform upset play for the Kentucky Derby is Santa Anita Derby third-place finisher Bolo. The only runner in the field to establish a clear foundation on turf (2-3 races with similar final figures), Bolo has made a smooth transition to running on dirt for trainer Carla Gaines.

There are those who claim he has “turf pedigree,” but his two competitive efforts against Dortmund show he is on the cusp of being able to compete with the best 3-year-olds in the country regardless of surface.

His average final figure is 75.1, which ranks fifth in the field, and Bolo is the only runner to show two positive Form Cycle Patterns back-to-back. Two races lifetime on dirt, with a 75.1/71.5 Compression (COMP) Pattern and a 73.2/73.8 New Pace Top (NPT) Pattern. Individually, these two patterns are strong indicators of progression, back-to-back like this means the horse is coming into his own. The NPT is considered the strongest indicator of progression on dirt and it is of note that he is the only runner with that indication.

Sure, he's only got two starts on dirt, which is the fewest in the field, but he has a couple fast 4f figures of 76 and 78 on turf. Also, notice he’s run in big fields, with the exception of the Santa Anita Derby. West Coast leading jockey Rafael Bejarano gets the call looking for his first in-the-money Kentucky Derby finish in what will be his 10th start.

Bolo’s positive Form Cycle Patterns, a decent post position to allow for a variety of jockey tactics and morning-line odds of 30-1 make for a very appealing longshot.

$2-million Kentucky Derby
Saturday, May 2, Churchill Downs, 6:34 p.m. ET
1 ¼ miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
 TV: NBC 4-7:30 p.m. ET

No.

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Ocho Ocho Ocho

Elvis Trujillo

Jim Cassidy

DP Racing

24-1

2

Carpe Diem

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Stable

7-1

3

Materiality

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

Alto Racing

14-1

4

Tencendur

Manny Franco 

George Weaver

Phillip S. Birsh

56-1

5

Danzig Moon

Julien Leparoux

Mark Casse

John Oxley

20-1

6

Mubtaahij

Christophe Soumillon

Mike de Kock

Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum

12-1

7

El Kabeir

SCRATCHED

SCRATCHED

SCRATCHED

N/A

8

Dortmund

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

Kaleem Shah

4-1

9

Bolo

Rafael Bejarano

Carla Gaines

Golden Pegasus Racing and Earle Mack

33-1

10

Firing Line

Gary Stevens

Simon Callaghan

Arnold Zetcher

8-1

11

Stanford

SCRATCHED

SCRATCHED

SCRATCHED

N/A

12

International Star

SCRATCHED SCRATCHED

SCRATCHED

N/A

13

Itsaknockout

Luis Saez

Todd Pletcher

Starlight Racing

29-1

14

Keen Ice

Kent Desormeaux

Dale Romans

Donegal Racing

37-1

15

Frosted

Joel Rosario

Kiaran McLaughlin

Godolphin Racing

9-1

16

War Story

Joe Talamo

Tom Amoss

Loooch Racing Stables Glenn K. Ellis and Christopher T. Dunn

41-1

17

Mr. Z

Ramon Vazquez

D. Wayne Lukas

Zayat Stables

30-1

18

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables

3-1

19

Upstart

Jose Ortiz

Rick Violette

Ralph Evans and WinStar Farm

21-1

20

Far Right

Mike Smith

Ron Moquett

Robert LaPenta and Harry Rosenblum

37-1

21

Frammento

Corey Nakatani

Nick Zito

Mossarosa

94-1

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