Predicteform Delta Downs Jackpot Analysis

Gambling

Wake Up Nick (above winning the I'm Smokin Stakes at Del Mar on Sept. 1) and Far Right both offer tremendous value in the Delta Downs Jackpot at 10-1 on the morning line. (BENOIT Photo)

The 14th Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes on Saturday at Delta Downs in Louisiana runs as the seventh race with a post time of 5:15 p.m. ET.

A 1 1/16-mile race for 2-year-olds with a purse of $1-million, the Delta Downs Jackpot is a Grade 3 stakes and one of a select few 2-year-old races that carry a seven-figure purse. The most well-known horse to win the Delta Jackpot is two-time Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents.

Another item of note is every runner has been sold at auction for prices ranging from $2,500 to $260,000, reasonable prices especially considering the winner takes home $600,000.

The Predicteform.com Pace Figures will tell you if a horse is more likely to improve or regress in its next start. Pace Figures are not just a single speed number, but rather a series of numbers that are incredibly powerful in identifying the Form Cycle Patterns of a horse.

To view the free Pace Figures while reading the Delta Jackpot Stakes analysis, click here. You can also get the past performances for FREE here.

Prime Engine (8-1)

A $110,000 purchase out of the 2013 Keeneland September yearling sale and a $145,000 purchase as a 2-year-old in training, Prime Engine is the second son of out an unraced dam. He ran lights out in two starts at Emerald Downs, a noted quick and hard surface that favors horses on or close to the lead.

His Pace Figures show a very good first time effort of 73.4/76.7, a Compression Line (COMP) Form Cycle Pattern followed by a 68.8/71.3 SOFT Form Cycle Pattern. He clearly appreciated the added distance and the SOFT lines references a horse that was not all out while winning.

He has a sharp owner, Dr. Mark Dedomenico, who has campaigned such runners as Blind Luck with Jerry Hollendorfer as the trainer. He moved to Santa Anita in the middle of October and has a good workout pattern with just one recent missing week (possibly due to travel). It’s interesting to note that he skipped the Breeders’ Cup (which Deomenico could have easily nominated into), to face a lesser bunch for the same money.

The Play: Contender – subtly competitive, lightly raced Northwest shipper, draws the rail and gets Russell Baze aboard. Value exists at 8-1 on the morning line.

Dekabrist (30-1)

A $50,000 purchase from the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July yearling sale, Dekabrist has shown little in his last four starts losing by a combined margin of 76 lengths. His Pace Figures are not competitive in here at all.

They Play: Too Slow – period.

Mr. Z (5-2)

A $135,000 purchase from the 2013 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October yearling sale, Mr. Z has competed in five graded stakes races, just one less than the entire field combined. He has 3 seconds and 2 fifths in those efforts, which makes him the clear class of the race. He also is the only runner to exit the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he ran a decent fifth, beaten less than two lengths for second (after Texas Red won by more than 6 lengths).

Trained by the “the Coach” D. Wayne Lukas and campaigned by Zayat Stables, Mr. Z brings first-class connections to this Southwest affair.

Looking at his Pace Figures, he ran his lifetime top of 74 the race prior to the Breeders’ Cup. And while he ran 72.8/79.9 at Santa Anita, he did regress in his final figure, which was disappointing, while increasing his 4-furlong number by 10 points.

The Play: Regressor – this will be his sixth different track and seventh race, both a lot to ask of such a young horse, especially off a Breeders’ Cup race and as a 5-2 morning-line favorite.

Conquest Tsunami (4-1)

Another runner out of the 2013 Keeneland September yearling sale ($190k), Conquest Tsunami looks to have found his best stride last out. He wired a lesser field while running a 74.9/68.2 Reversal (REV) Form Cycle Pattern. The REV indicates the first time a horse runs a faster final figure than 4-furlong figure, which is a powerful predictor for lightly raced horses stretching out.

We would water down that Pace Figure description as the 74.9 was not only a lifetime top, both were on the lead in a race with a slow pace (as seen by Brisnet's 1c and 2c notes).

The Play: Regressor – on the fence about this runner, his morning-line odds of 4-1 give little value.

Saratoga Heater (15-1)

Purchased out of the OBS Spring sale of 2-year-olds in training for $100,000, Saratoga Heater is the only New York-bred in the field. He’s got back-to-back wins at 6 and 7 furlongs, respectively, and all three of his lifetime starts have come on an off-track.

Jockey Joel Rosario stays aboard and makes the trip out of New York for this $1-million race. He’s been off 62 days and, while not a long period of time, it is significant as it is the longest layoff of all the runners.

Heater has run three consecutive form cycle patterns in a row, NEG – DTOP – NPT (most recent). While the NEG and DTOP are considered Form Cycle Regressors, the NPT is a positive pattern. Digging deeper into the figures themselves, his last seven furlong race is significant — 86.3 (2f) – 79.3 (4f) – 68.3 (6f) – 68.9 (final). This major deceleration combined with stretching out to 1 1/16 miles will be a difficult task.

The Play: Regressor – front-runner will ensure fast pace but distance questions make him a pass.

Golden Actor (7-2)

A $20,000 purchase from the 2013 Keeneland September yearling sale, Golden Actor is the only starter in the field to have a race and win at Delta Downs. While on paper his last race in a $200,000 stakes combined with torrid bullet works look unstoppable, his Pace Figures tell a different story.

His last-out DTOP Form Cycle Pattern of 71.1/68.8 indicates a runner who ran his best final and 4f figures in the same race — a strong indicator regression is forthcoming.

The Play: Regressor – his final figure in his DTOP effort is too slow, and at 7-2 on the morning line he is a complete underlay with no betting value.

Red Button (12-1)

The highest-priced yearling purchase in the field at $260,000 (Keeneland September 2013), Red Button is the only runner in the field moving from turf to dirt. And, with two of his four lifetime races on the synthetic, this runner has only one lifetime dirt start, in which he ran a 61 final figure.

His half-brothers (same dam [mother], different sire [father]), Grail Seeker 2007 and Brannaman 2009, both showed more synthetic prowess than dirt.

The Play: Too Slow – and the wrong surface.

Wake Up Nick (10-1)

A $35,000 purchase from Barretts March sale of selected 2-year-olds in training, Wake Up Nick is has five wins and a second from his six lifetime starts. He’s faced almost entirely state-bred runners which makes this graded stakes, open-class race the most difficult of his career.

His Pace Figure line is of the rarest we’ve seen as all six of his lifetime starts showed a Form Cycle Pattern. His most recent effort at Santa Anita Park on Breeders’ Cup Saturday was a 76.1/82.9, DTOP Form Cycle Pattern. As the track was lightning fast that day, both his final and 4f figures could be inflated.

The Play: Longshot – if he can revert to his off-the-pace running style, he could rally late, although winning would be a task on this 6-furlong, tight-turn racetrack.

Far Right (10-1)

A $2,500 bargain from the 2013 Keeneland January horses of all ages sale, Far Right is by an under-the-radar stallion in Notional, who happened to be a very good dirt horse (4 for 6 lifetime for $700,000) who won three graded stakes and finished second in the 2007 Florida Derby.

Far Right raced well in his last effort into a speed bias, though the more important race was his prior start in the Grade 2 Futurity Stakes at Belmont Park. He ran into one of the top 2-year-olds in the country, Blofeld, who went on to win the Grade 2 Nashua Stakes at one mile on Nov. 2 by five lengths. The Futurity third-place finisher also came back to win a stakes, which makes the Futurity a key race.

Far Right’s Pace Figures are the most consistent of the field with his last five Final Pace Figures in a tight range of 71.4 to 73.6. He is on a Reversal (REV) Form Cycle Pattern, which is the first time a runner has a higher final figure than 4f figure. This pattern is a sign of progression, especially on the stretch out.

The Play: Contender – he looks to be sitting on progression with an established floor figure of 72. Morning line of 10-1 makes for a real value play.

Ocho Ocho Ocho (6-1)

Bought for $200,000 at the OBS Spring sale of 2-year-olds in training, Ocho Ocho Ocho is another runner shipping in after running on Breeders’ Cup Saturday, when the track at Santa Anita was lightning fast.

He has the fastest first lifetime race in the field with a 74/79.9 followed by his most 78.7/86.2 race on Breeders’ Cup Saturday. Similar to Wake Up Nick, the 78.7 should be watered over a bit, but even with regression he still has the fastest Final Figure last out.

One of the best big race riders in the game, Mike Smith, comes in from L.A. to ride, although the outside post can be considered a disadvantage.

The Play: Fringe Contender – there will be value but only if he can stay at his morning line odds of 6-1 or greater, which is unlikely with Mike Smith aboard.

$1-million Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes
Saturday, November 22, Delta Downs, 5:15 p.m. ET
1 1/16 mile, dirt, 2-year-olds

Post

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Morning Line

1

Prime Engine

Russell Baze

Jerry Hollendorfer

8-1

2

Dekabrist

Jesus M. Rios

Gennadi Dorochenko

30-1

3

Mr. Z

Paco Lopez 

D. Wayne Lukas

5-2

4

Conquest Tsunami

Shaun Bridgmohan

Mark Casse

4-1

5

Saratoga Heater

Joel Rosario

Al Stall Jr.

15-1

6

Golden Actor

Jose Antonio Gallego

Ignacio Roncancio

7-2

7

Red Button

Tyler Baze

Mark Glatt

12-1

8

Wake Up Nick

Mario Gutierrez

Leandro Mora

10-1

9

Far Right

Corey Lanerie

Ron Moquett

10-1

10

Ocho Ocho Ocho

Mike Smith

James Cassidy

6-1

11

Unblunted

Joe Talamo

Michael W. McCarthy

15-1

12

Two Six Wins

Martin Pedroza

Michael Pender

20-1

Note: Unblunted and Two Six Wins are on the also-eligible list, which means the field is capped at 10 runners and they would need a defection or two to make the field.

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