Welcome to Los Ponies Longshots! Each week, America’s Best Racing’s Southern California correspondent Jose Contreras – Los Ponies to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide two or three longshots at 8-to-1 odds or better on the morning line that he identifies as strong value bets. Contreras also will map out a betting strategy for how to play his selections and keep track of his return on investment (ROI).

Stop back each week if you love a longshot!

Saturday, Race 5, Santa Anita Park, 5:30 p.m. ET

#2 Dancing Ava (8-1): She ran on to finish fourth in her career debut when showing good early speed while battling between horses. That was a very good educational debut. She broke well, got pressured from both sides and fought on down the stretch to hold fourth. Many of the horses in here are making their first start, and I think Ava will benefit greatly from having some racing experience. This trainer wins at 29% with horses making their second start.

Strategy on $10 Budget

$1 exacta: 2 with 3,5,8,9,10 ($5)

$1 exacta: 3,5,8,9,10 with 2 ($5)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$10 win-place on Dancing Ava ($20)

$1 exacta: 2 with 3,5,8,9,10 ($5)

Strategy on $50 Budget

$1 trifecta: 2 with 3,5,8,9,10 with 3,5,8,9,10 ($20)

$1 trifecta: 3,5,8,9,10 with 2 with 3,5,8,9,10 ($20)

$10 win on Dancing Ava ($10) 

Sunday, Race 2, Santa Anita Park, 4 p.m. ET

#11 Blue Navy Blue (8-1): He is making his turf debut after two decent starts on the dirt, where he finished second and sixth. I like the good early speed he showed in his debut when putting some pressure to the well-meant Drefong, who went on to win by more than nine lengths. Speed has been holding well on the downhill turf course and he looks to have been training well for this race.

Strategy on $10 Budget

$1 exacta: 11 with 3,4,6,7,8 ($5)

$1 exacta: 3,4,6,7,8  with 11 ($5)

Strategy on $25 Budget

$10 win-place on Blue Navy Blue ($20)

$1 exacta: 11 with 3,4,6,7,8  ($5)

Strategy on $50 Budget

$1 trifecta: 11 with 3,4,6,7,8  with 3,4,6,7,8  ($20)

$1 trifecta: 3,4,6,7,8  with 11 with 3,4,6,7,8  ($20)

$10 win on Blue Navy Blue ($10)

ROI Year to date: $935 wagered/$53 returned