Tip of the Week: A Maiden No More

Gambling

Pure of Spirit breaks her maiden as a 5-year-old at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Coglianese Photo/Leslie Martin)

Being a 5-year-old maiden is usually strike one against a horse.

A perception that the horse is a money-burner is strike two.

The count on Pure of Spirit stood no balls, two strikes as she came to the plate, er, starting gate on March 15 for the 10th race at Gulfstream Park. The 5-year-old mare owned a 0-for-5 record with three straight runner-up finishes, and a third-place finish before that rash of seconditis.

In three of those of those races, the daughter of Purim was sent off at odds of 7-2 or less.

In her last race, she was sent off as the prohibitive 3-5 favorite and nevertheless managed to complete her hat trick of runner-up finishes.

She certainly had the bottom of the exacta written all over her for the March 15 maiden special weight race on the turf. Yet, with a closer examination of her past performances, there was evidence that this bridesmaid was finally poised to catch the bouquet.

For starters, in each of four races after a sixth-place finish in her debut, her Beyer Speed Figure had ticked upward. If that trend could continue, at some point she figured to find a field she could handle.

In addition that odds-on loss was not as unsettling as it might seem.

Though she lost by three-quarters of a length in that Jan 23 race, she raced against males. Now she was once again facing fillies and mares and figured to find this field softer than the one she tackled in her previous start.

Buying win tickets on her may have seemed risky, yet here was horse that seemed to be on the upswing and was coming off a solid effort against better horses. She was also 0-5 and not 0-15, when there would be a lengthy body of evidence weighing in against her.

Best of all, she was not favored. She was the 3-1 second-choice, not a heavy favorite, meaning there was far more value in the win pool than her previous start, which was hardly a poor effort.

If you decided to take one more swing with Pure of Spirit, this time you smacked the ball over the fence. She won by a half-length and returned $8.40 to win.

THE LESSON: As much as a horse might look like a perennial runner-up, upon closer inspection there could be a reason for optimism that a trip to the winner’s circle is finally at hand. Even a butter-fingered bridesmaid can sometimes latch on to the bouquet.

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