Your Pigskins and Ponies Picks for Nov. 27-29

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Welcome to ABR’s Pigskins and Ponies column, where winners play!

Horse racing is my means to an end, and I love the sport like no other, but I admit it, like most of you, on a Sunday afternoon in the fall, it’s hard to pull me away from my couch … and NFL RedZone.

I have a wanted sign in Las Vegas and am feared by fantasy football mavens nationwide, but when it comes to the college game, I choose to punt.

That’s where Derek Cooley comes in. The dude is a loaded gun of university knowledge.

Let’s kick off the football, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!

**Lines as of Wednesday Night from scoresandodds.com**

College Pigskins – by Derek Cooley

Another week, another solid 4-2 performance against the spread.

Our two road dogs, Northwestern and Michigan State, not only covered, but actually won their games. A couple of our home favorites did their thing as well, in Ole Miss and Oregon.

Georgia just really isn't that good and should have lost to Georgia Southern, and in regards to Penn State not covering their underdog spread at home, I just don't see it when it comes to Christian Hackenberg. I just don't see it.

We are 25-11 ATS in the last six weeks.

Hopefully, everyone was able to enjoy their Thanksgiving, football and family! We should do this again sometime.

Six games on deck for week 13, let's get to it.

Last Week: 4-2

Season Total: 40-33-1 (.548) 

Week 13

(4) Iowa -1.5 @ Nebraska (Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

Nebraska is playing for a bowl game, but the Iowa Hawkeyes are playing for something much bigger.  They have clinched the West Division of the B1G, but every game is still a must win for the fourth-ranked Hawkeyes from here on out. C.J. Beathard reminds me of a young Connor Cook when Michigan State beat Stanford two years ago in the Rose Bowl. It's not always pretty, but he always gets the job done. Iowa will pull this game out.

(19) TCU -1 vs. (7) Baylor (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Chris Johnson, Baylor's third-string quarterback to start the year, will be making the start for the Bears in Ft. Worth. TCU is coming off of a valiant effort against Oklahoma last weekend, and will continue to play well going into this game, as Trevone Boykin is probable to play. This is a test to see if Baylor's offensive system is, in fact, a plug-and-play system behind center. 

(8) Ohio State PICK @ (10) Michigan (Saturday, noon ET, ABC)

Ohio State and Michigan both have a lot to play for still, even though OSU's upset loss last Saturday lessens the actual playoff implications of this game by just a bit. Ohio State is more talented, and it will show on the field this time around as I'm assuming the play calling for the Buckeyes will be more consistent and effective this time around. I was not a fan of the plays they were calling last weekend.

Georgia Tech +4 vs. Georgia (Saturday, noon ET, ESPN2)

I think Georgia has all but quit on this season, and Georgia Tech is the better team at this time. When you throw the triple option offense at a team that's not giving 100%, in my opinion, that's cause for concern. The Yellow Jackets win straight up.

GEORGIA COULD SEE THE GEORGIA TECH TOUCDOWN
FLAG QUITE A FEW TIMES ON SATURDAY

"Georgia Tech football touchdown flag" by John Trainor from Roswell, GA, USA - Georgia Tech Flag. Licensed under CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons.

(16) Northwestern -3.5 vs. Illinois (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

Illinois upset the Wildcats last year in Evanston, and Northwestern is looking for revenge. Northwestern is feeling it coming off a couple of big wins, most notably last weekend in Madison, Wisc. Northwestern is just the better team, and it will show in this fun one at Soldier Field.

(6) Notre Dame +3.5 @ (9) Stanford (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, FOX)

This is an enormous, playoff-type game for both teams in Palo Alto, Calif. The reason why I am taking ND and the points? I think this game comes down to a last possession situation and will be decided by three points or fewer, making the pick for me the Fighting Irish.

Pro Pigskins – by Joe Kristufek

Our “addition by subtraction” theory worked with the Denver Broncos and almost with the St. Louis Rams as well. The Detroit Lions stopped the Oakland Raiders but the Carolina Panthers proved to be too much for the Redskins. Good opinions result in a wash.

Last week: 2-2

Season Total: 29-32-3 (.475) 

Week 12

Sunday, Nov. 29

Minnesota Vikings + 1.5 at Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are freefalling and the Vikings are giving holiday thanks to the Bears for defeating the Packers on Thursday night. They won’t pass up this opportunity to seize control of their division.

TEDDY BRIDGEWATER AND THE VIKINGS ARE ROLLING

"Teddy Bridgewater handoff" by U.S. Army Sgt. 1st Class Michel Sauret - https://www.flickr.com/photos/416thengineers/15188864683/in/album-721576.... Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons.

Denver Broncos +3 vs. New England Patriots

QB Brock Osweiler has a productive start under his belt and the Broncos will be fired up to put a blemish on the Patriots unbeaten record. New England is super resourceful, but at some point all of these injuries are going to catch up with them.

New York Giants -3 at Washington Redskins

With an opportunity to put some separation between themselves and the rest of the division, the Giants should rise to the occasion. They’ve lost some tough games this year and are better than their record. The Redskins are up and down … mostly down.

Ponies – by Joe Kristufek

That’s more like it.

Thanks to a great ride by Joe Rocco Jr., Bagg O’Day’s win in the Bet On Sunshine Stakes at Churchill Downs helped us launch a productive weekend.

As expected, Exaggerator took down the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, but La Appassionata settled for second in the Delta Princess and Weiner Valkyrie disappointed in the Cardinal Handicap.

Last week: 4-2-1-0 ($2 WPS * $24 wagered * $30.10 returned)

Season Total: 38-5-6-8 ($2 WPS * $228 wagered * $135.40 returned = $3.57)

Churchill Downs – Louisville, Ky.

Friday, Nov. 27, 2015

Race 9 – Dream Supreme Stakes

#1 House of Sole (morning-line odds, 5-2)

This talented and ultra-consistent 4-year-old daughter of Limehouse tests stakes waters for the first time, but she loves it in Louisville and meets a field she can handle.

Race 10 – Commonwealth Turf Stakes (G3)

#13 Obsidian Splendor (morning-line odds, 12-1)

Muddled in mediocrity prior to his last start, this 3-year-old by Temple City caught my attention with a powerful allowance victory. He’s sure to fly under the radar here, but if he can overcome the tough post and repeat his last performance, the tote board might light up like a Christmas tree.

Race 11 – Clark Handicap (G1)

#9 Race Day (morning-line odds, 7-2)

Following a string of tremendous runs, this 4-year-old by Tapit struggled in consecutive efforts before being given a brief freshening. He returned to defeat defending Clark champ Hoppertunity in the Grade 3 Fayette Stakes at Keeneland on Breeders’ Cup weekend, and all signs point to a similar performance in this one.

RACE DAY WINNING THE OAKLAWN HANDICAP EARLIER THIS YEAR

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Saturday, Nov. 28, 2015

Race 9 – Golden Rod Stakes (G2)

#8 Carina Mia (morning-line odds, 2-1)

Two-year-old fillies with Kentucky Oaks aspirations gather for this one, and Carina Mia looks like the real deal. She lost to fellow Golden Rod runner Stageplay in her debut but returned to score a monstrous romp in her very next start. She’s bred to handle added distance and may run a very special race on Saturday.

Race 11 – Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2)

#4 Gun Runner (morning-line odds, 8-1)

A game winner of his debut at Churchill in September, Gun Runner followed right up five weeks later with a two-turn allowance win at Keeneland. He overcame some adversity that day, displaying both talent and professionalism. I think he’s capable of slay the Bob Baffert dragon Mor Spirit in this one.

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