Tip of the Week: More Can Be Less Taxing

Gambling

Photo by Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing

Things are not always as they might seem in handicapping a horse race.

Just because a horse tires and gets beats at a shorter distance, a handicapper should not automatically dismiss that horse at a longer distance.

Pace can often make the difference.

For example, consider Dominic’s Smile in the sixth race at Belmont Park on Sept. 27.

In his last race, he had set the pace in a 5 ½-furlong turf sprint on Sept. 6 but finished on the short end of a tough stretch duel in a $35,000 claimer as he lost by a neck. Before that, the 3-year-old was seventh against better company in a five-furlong optional claimer at Monmouth Park.

Now he was dropping into a $25,000 claimer at Belmont Park, but at six furlongs on the turf.

The natural thought would be that the added distance would come back to haunt Dominic’s Smile, but the next line in his past performances should have alleviated those fears.

In a $40,000 turf claimer at Belmont on July 12, Dominic’s Smile went gate-to-wire at six furlongs in winning by a length and a half.

As illogical as it might seem for the gelding to lose at a shorter distance and win at a longer one, it made all sense in the world.

You see, in the 5 ½- and 5-furlong races, Dominic’s Smile was faced with opening half-miles of 44 2/5  and 43 2/5 seconds. Meanwhile, in the six-furlong race, he carved out an opening half-mile in 45 2/5. Thanks to that slower pace in the longer race, Dominic’s Smile was able to keep rolling and win by a half-length.

With that in mind, the class drop and the prospect of more favorable fractions made Dominic’s Smile an intriguing possibility at a morning line price of 5-2.

Sent off as the 2-1 favorite, Dominic’s Smile wound up pressing from second an unusually quick pace on a hard, fast course, and then forged to the front in the stretch and edged clear to win by three-quarters of a length and pay $6.40 to win.

THE LESSON: A more favorable pace scenario can sometimes allow a horse to handle a longer distance of ground.

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