Tip of the Week: Time For A Change

Gambling

Photo by NYRA/Coglinese Photos

There are times when a small change can make a big difference in a horse’s racing luck.

North Slope is a 4-year-old gelding trained by Kiaran McLaughlin who was talented enough to finish second in the Grade 3 Hall of Fame Stakes last year, but came into this month with an 11-race losing streak.

Something, though, was different for his start on Sept. 19 at Belmont Park in a turf allowance race. He was adding blinkers.

While that change alone can on occasion be telling, in the case of North Slope there was evidence indicating he could turn in an improved effort.

Twice before during the losing streak, he had added and then shed his blinkers – and each time he registered a solid effort. In the Hall of Fame Stakes, he added blinkers and finished second by three quarters of a length after finishing fifth in an ungraded stakes in his previous race.

Then, earlier this year, on May 23, the blinkers were taken off and he finished third by just three quarters of a length after finishing fifth, beaten 4 ¾ lengths in his previous try. Three races later after that switch, McLaughlin again tinkered with the blinkers and the possibility of an improved performance – coupled with a bullet workout since his last start - made North Slope an attractive proposition at 10-1 odds. In his past performances, North Slope had not been higher than 6-1 in a turf race.

That hunch that there could be value in backing North Slope paid off when the gelding posted a length and a half win and returned $23.60 for each $2 win bet.

In this case, a small change turned into a big payoff.

THE LESSON: A small change can be a strong indicator of an improved performance, especially if it worked in the past.

NORTH SLOPE'S PAST PERFORMANCES


newsletter sign-up

Stay up-to-date with the best from America's Best Racing!

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Instagram TikTok YouTube
Facebook Twitter Pinterest Instagram TikTok YouTube