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Blog - GAMBLING

Hardest Core impressed in the Arlington Million on Aug. 16, but is he a serious threat in the male turf division moving forward? (Four Footed Fotos)

The latest edition of one of the world’s most famous turf races was not your daddy’s Arlington Million.

While top heavy with last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Magician and the 2013 Million winner Real Solution, the overall quality was sub-par as only seven horses turned out for the international, 1 ¼-mile turf race. 

So when someone beat both of them, it raised the inevitable question of whether a new star was born.

Chances are nothing of the sort happened.

In a race headlined by reigning Turf champ Magician and Real Solution, it was Hardest Core, an 11-1 shot, who rallied past Magician in the final furlong to win by a length.

The win was the fourth straight for Hardest Core, who has improved dramatically since he was purchased at the 2013 Keeneland November breeding stock sale and Edward Graham took over his training this year. Yet his most recent victory came in the Cape Henlopen Stakes, a $50,000 turf stakes at Delaware Park, a sign of how unexpected his stellar performance turned out to be.

He may be a Grade 1 winner now, but he probably benefitted greatly from the way the Million unfolded. In the small field, Magician, the 9-5 favorite, showed uncharacteristic early speed as he pressed the front-running Side Glance for much of the race.

Magician edged clear in midstretch, but had then no answer for Hardest Core’s late charge.

Figuring Hardest Core probably peaked in the Million, there’s little interest in placing him on the Hot List and playing him next time when he may bounce from such a taxing effort.

Magician ran well, but since his Breeders’ Cup triumph he has only one win and three seconds in six 2014 starts, and he’ll most likely be well bet in his next race. Since he seems to prefer to complete the exacta these days rather than top it, we’ll also pass on adding him to the Hot List.

The late wagering did not uncover a Hot List runner as no one dropped appreciably in the final three minutes, but there was one horse that had a mulligan and should be followed next time.

Real Solution hasn’t been mentioned yet, which is not surprising because he was no factor in the race. Washy while heading to post, Real Solution tracked in fourth to the quarter-pole and then retreated to last.

A winner of the Grade 1 Manhattan Stakes in his previous start, Real Solution clearly had an off day that can be forgiven based on his strong recent body of work. Believing he can rebound in his next start, we’ll assign him a “B” as a secondary horse to watch and hope he’ll go off at odds higher than his 2-1 price in the Million.

Hot List horses: Real Solution (B)

Arlington Million
Late Wagering Report

No.

Horse

Odds – 3 min. to post

Final Odds

1

Hardest Core

12-1

11-1

2

Smoking Sun

9-2

9-2

3

Magician

2-1

9-5

4

Finnegans Wake

8-1

13-1

5

Up With the Birds

9-2

6-1

6

Real Solution

5-2

2-1

7

Side Glance

9-1

8-1

red white blue Bar

The $750,000 Grade 1 Beverly D. Stakes

Charline Inside

Euro Charline streaked to victory in the Beverly D. Stakes on Aug. 16. (Four Footed Fotos)

A year ago, it was Dank who captured the Beverly D. Stakes in her U.S. debut and then went on to take the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf.

Now, Euro Charline will try to follow in those footsteps.

A 3-year-old filly owned by Team Valor International, the daughter of Myboycharlie arrived in the U.S. off a stakes victory against her elders at Ascot and improved on that solid effort as she rallied from midpack to notch a three-quarters-of-a-length score in the $750,000 Beverly D.

The Beverly D., at 1 3/16 miles, marked Euro Charlie’s first try at a distance beyond a mile and the way she handled it against a strong field indicates the 1 ¼ miles of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf should be within her scope.

So we’ll assign her an “A” for her victory at 10-1 odds, believing the 3-year-old can continue to develop and mature and become even more formidable in the fall under the care of her new trainer, Todd Pletcher.

The Beverly D. proved to be a busy race for the Hot List as three other horses were tabbed from it.

Runner-up Stephanie’s Kitten, the 5-2 favorite, turned in another strong effort as she rallied from last, and it appears she’s rounding back into top form. We’ll give her a “B” and happily include her in the exotics the next time she runs.

Two of the longshots in the field earned a spot on the Hot List through late wagering criteria.

La Tia dropped from 22-1 to 17-1 and gave her backers a thrill as she set the pace on a clear lead and spurted to a 2 ½-length lead at the eighth pole. She weakened late and wound up fourth, but finished just a length and a half behind the winner while landing on the “D” List.

As much as she’s notch below Grade 1 company, La Tia should be tough to catch if she returns in a Grade 2 or 3 stakes.

French invader Sparkling Beam tumbled from 23-1 to 19-1 but showed little in finishing eighth. She was ambitiously spotted in the Beverly D. and figures to be more competitive against lesser company as a “D” List choice.

Hot List horses: Euro Charline (A), Stephanie Kitten’s (B), La Tia (D), Sparkling Beam (D)

Beverly D. Late Wagering Report

No.

Horse

Odds – 3 min. to post

Final Odds

1

Just the Judge

6-1

6-1

2

Euro Charline

10-1

10-1

3

Street of Gold

37-1

50-1

4

Emollient

8-1

7-1

5

Stephanie’s Kitten

5-2

5-2

6

Tannery

17-1

17-1

7

La Tia

22-1

17-1

8

I’m Already Sexy

14-1

19-1

9

Alterite

5-2

3-1

10

Sparkling Beam

23-1

19-1

11

Somali Lemonade

6-1

6-1

The Hot List, founded by turf writer/handicapper Bob Ehalt in 2011, blends a detailed analysis of a race with late wagering trends to pick out the horses with the best chance of running a winning race in their next start. Hot List horses are rated in four lettered categories:

A : A preferred horse to watch off his effort in the race             
B : A secondary horse to watch off his effort in the race            
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

For questions on the Hot List, email: nyhotlist@gmail.com

 

Image Description

Bob Ehalt

Bob Ehalt has been an avid fan of Thoroughbred racing since that day in June of 1971 when he and his father walked from their Queens Village, N.Y., home to Belmont Park to see Canonero II fall short in his bid for the Triple Crown. A veteran sports writer and correspondent for Thoroughbred Times magazine, Bob has covered horse racing for more than 20 years and has won three awards in the Associated Press Sports Editors national writing contest for his coverage of the sport.

Now working at the New Haven Register in Connecticut, Bob has also owned Thoroughbreds since 1995 and was a member of the syndicate that raced Tale of the Cat. He also writes a racing blog for ESPNNewYork.com and is the co-founder of the New York Hot List handicapping service, which is offered at InterBets.com.

His NTRA.com blog received first-place honors in the 2008-09 Breeders' Cup Media Awards, winning in the initial year of competition in the Social Media category.  You can follow him on Twitter at @BobEhalt

 

Image Description

Bob Ehalt

Bob Ehalt has been an avid fan of Thoroughbred racing since that day in June of 1971 when he and his father walked from their Queens Village, N.Y., home to Belmont Park to see Canonero II fall short in his bid for the Triple Crown. A veteran sports writer and correspondent for Thoroughbred Times magazine, Bob has covered horse racing for more than 20 years and has won three awards in the Associated Press Sports Editors national writing contest for his coverage of the sport.

Now working at the New Haven Register in Connecticut, Bob has also owned Thoroughbreds since 1995 and was a member of the syndicate that raced Tale of the Cat. He also writes a racing blog for ESPNNewYork.com and is the co-founder of the New York Hot List handicapping service, which is offered at InterBets.com.

His NTRA.com blog received first-place honors in the 2008-09 Breeders' Cup Media Awards, winning in the initial year of competition in the Social Media category.  You can follow him on Twitter at @BobEhalt

 

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