Hot List Graded Stakes Review: $1-million Haskell Invitational

Gambling

Bayern earned an 'A' for his Haskell performance. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)

It was understandable that Bayern was perceived to be a miler prior to entering the starting gate for the Haskell Invitational.

His first two tries at distances beyond a mile were hardly memorable. He tired in the final furlong of the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby and finished third, 5 ¼ lengths behind the victorious Danza. Then, at a mile and three-sixteenths in the Preakness, he got off to a bad start and never showed much interest in running, winding up ninth, 21 lengths to the rear of California Chrome.

That impression was discarded after the Haskell when Bayern overpowered eight rivals, including the fabulous filly Untapable, and motored to a front-running, 7 ¼-length victory in the snappy time 1:47.82.

And so, nine furlongs is clearly within his range.

But how about 10? Against better competition?

It’s hardly a given.

In some ways Bayern resembles last year’s Haskell winner, Verrazano who was victorious by nearly 10 lengths while also capitalizing on a speed-favoring track at the Jersey Shore. On his best day, Verrazano is brilliant. At a mile and a quarter, he is ordinary.

Bayern was at least a more impressive winner than Verrazano, despite the smaller final margin. His final time was 2.86 seconds faster than Verrazano’s, which equates to about 14 lengths.

Differences in the racing surface aside, Bayern has the look of a horse who will be more competitive than Verrazano at a mile and a quarter in a classic like the $1.25 million Travers on Aug. 23. Yet until he does it, there will always be lingering questions about his ability to run as fast as he does and stay on top from gate to wire against Grade 1 company at 10 furlongs.

Perhaps that’s why the $1-million Pennsylvania Derby on Sept. 20 at Parx is also in the picture, and Bayern would be quite a handful in that spot with the added rest.

So, having faith in trainer Bob Baffert’s ability to pick the right spot for a horse that has blossomed this summer, he’ll get the A he deserves on the Hot List and we’ll tag along at the betting windows wherever he shows up next, be it the Travers or Pennsylvania Derby.

As for the late money, Bayern went down one click from 5-1 to 4.70-to-1 and runner-up Albano dipped from 14-1 to 11.60-to-1 in the final three minutes, both failing to meet the Hot List wagering criteria. The heaviest action centered on Social Inclusion, who dropped from 12-1 to 6.80-to-1 in the final three minutes, earning him a D on the Hot List for a late plunge at the betting windows but finishing off the board in seventh.

Social Inclusion was once again fractious before the start, then stumbled at the break and was bumped by Untapable. He stalked in third much of the way, then wilted in the final furlong and finished nearly 11 lengths behind Bayern.

With the post-race news that he’s been transferred to the barn of trainer Chad Brown, we’re confident we’ll see an improved runner next time.

As for the filly, she had no real excuse. Though she had some minor trouble at the start and raced wide against the grain of the racetrack, she should have been closer than nine lengths at the finish. Considering how her previous win in the Mother Goose saw a big tip from her customary speed figures, a rest seems in order and there’s little sense in assigning her a letter because she’ll most likely be an underlay in her return.

Interestingly, the late money provided some indication of what was to come as she rose from even money to 7-5 in the final minutes.  

Hot List horses: Bayern (A), Social Inclusion (D)

Haskell Late Wagering Report

Horse No.

Horse Name

Odds – 3 min. to post

Final Odds

1

Encryption

46

67

2

Bayern

5

9/2

3

Albano

14

11

4

Irish You Well

21

21

5

Just Call Kenny

8

9

6

Social Inclusion

12

6

7

Untapable

Even

7/5

8

Wildcat Red

9

9

9

Medal Count

9/2

9/2         

The Hot List, founded by turf writer/handicapper Bob Ehalt in 2011, blends a detailed analysis of a race with late wagering trends to pick out the horses with the best chance of running a winning race in their next start. Hot List horses are rated in four lettered categories:

A : A preferred horse to watch off his effort in the race                    
B : A secondary horse to watch off his effort in the race                                    
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 1st through 3rd 
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

For questions on the Hot List, email: nyhotlist@gmail.com

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