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Blog - GAMBLING

Untapable won the Kentucky Oaks in her last start. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)

The story surrounding the 58th running of the Grade 1, $300,000 Mother Goose Stakes is mostly about one horse, Untapable, winner of three straight stakes races including the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. With a seven length average margin of victory from those three races, Untapable is the one to beat. Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan Stakes winner Stopchargingmaria and likely early leader Princess Violet, riding a two race-winning streak, are the two main contenders to win if Untapable is not up to the task.

Simply put, Untapable has run faster than nearly every other 3-year-old in North America, including males like Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome. First dominating by nearly 10 lengths in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes in February (108 Equibase Speed Figure), Untapable dispatched the field in the Fair Grounds Oaks by nearly eight lengths with a 113 figure then preceded to win the Kentucky Oaks by four and one-half lengths in a field of 12 and with a 114 figure. In each effort, Untapable has drawn off with ease in the last quarter mile and we should expect nothing less than another stellar performance in the Mother Goose Stakes.

Princess Violet can't compete with Untapable in terms of how fast she's run to date. Her best effort came in her most recent race when winning by five and one-half lengths and earning a 99 figure. Still, she's making only the fourth start of her career and improved 13 points between her effort on April 6 and her most recent start, so with another step forward she could have a say in the outcome. Additionally, Princess Violet is likely to be in front from the start and quite relaxed with little company and it is possible she could make it difficult even for a horse of Untapable's quality to run her down.

STOPCHARGINGMARIA WINNING THE BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES

Stopchargingmaria

Stopchargingmaria earned a career best 94 when gamely winning the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes in the final strides last month. She had won two important graded stakes as a 2-year old but in two starts at the age of three, Stopchargingmaria had failed to show that ability, finishing fifth and fourth. However, returning to the form shown last year, Stopchargingmaria looks likely to run a new career best effort and must be considered a contender in this year's Mother Goose.

The rest of the field with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures: America (86), Aqua Regia (86) and House Rules (92).

My Selections:

Untapable

Princess Violet

Stopchargingmaria

$300,000 Mother Goose Stakes

Saturday, Race 4, post time 2:53 p.m. EDT

1 1/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-old fillies

PP

Horse

Jockey

Weight

Trainer

1

House Rules (KY)

Joel Rosario

121

Allen Jerkens

2

Untapable (KY)

John Velazquez

121

Steve Asmussen

3

Princess Violet (NY)

Jose Ortiz

121

Mike Hushion

4

America (KY)

Irad Ortiz Jr.

121

Bill Mott

5

Aqua Regia (KY)

Jose Lezcano

121

Tom Albertrani

6

Stopchargingmaria (KY)

Javier Castellano

121

Todd Pletcher

 

Image Description

Ellis Starr

National Racing Analyst for Equibase, Fan Education Specialist, Bettor, Magister of Equine Prognostication (Handicapper).

Image Description

Ellis Starr

National Racing Analyst for Equibase, Fan Education Specialist, Bettor, Magister of Equine Prognostication (Handicapper).

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