Don't Tell Sophia's win in the Spinster proved to be an interesting race for the Hot List. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)

The $1-million Shadwell Turf Mile                              

If you watched the Shadwell Turf Mile and saw where the odds-on favorite was at the top of the stretch, you might have been worried that your bets were about to go up in smoke.

But that wasn’t just any favorite languishing at the back of the pack. It was Wise Dan.

So even though he got off to a slow and awkward start and then seemed to be losing ground approaching the three-sixteenths pole, what appeared to be a vulnerable 4-5 favorite was anything but.

That heart of a champion which has made Wise Dan one of the more amazing horses of this generation once again kicked into gear in the final furlong. He gobbled up the ground between him and the leaders lined in front of him, surging to the lead outside them in the final 70 yards and winning  by a length.

Given that he’s seven and coming back from colic surgery, it’s natural to figure that Father Time might one day catch up with Wise Dan. But with each race he continues to amaze, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll be anything but the horse to beat as he chases a third straight victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Even though he will not offer any value on the toteboard at Santa Anita (unless his connection opt to try him on dirt in the Breeders’ Cup Classic), he looms the key horse in the BC Mile and gets a spot on the Hot List’s “A” list in anticipation of yet another strong effort at the world championships.

Seek Again, the 5-2 second choice, finished sixth in the field of eight but deserves a second chance. The 4-year-old  colt was rallying into contention along the rail in mid-stretch when jockey Joel Rosario took a hold of him and yanked him outside horses. By the time Rosario finally found a running lane, the race was over.

Considering that he lost by only a head to Wise Dan in the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic back in May and was coming off a Grade 2 victory at Saratoga in which he covered the mile in 1:33.25, we’ll place Seek Again on the “B” List and use him heavily in the exotics at the Breeders’ Cup.

The Hot List’s late wagering angle also yielded a couple of horses to watch next time.

Runner-up Grand Arch dropped from 23-1 to 19.90-1 in the final three minutes and turned in a solid effort while landing on the “C” List. He tracked in third from the three path on the backstretch, was carried four wide on the turn and still battled fiercely to the end. Under different circumstances, he might have won, but against Wise Dan he had to settle for being second best.

Kaigun, who dropped from 9-1 to 7.40-1, tried to rally between horses in the stretch but lacked a strong late kick and checked in fourth to land on the “D” List. Second in the Woodbine Mile in his previous start, he’s certainly capable of rebounding and turning in a better performance next time.

Hot List horses: Wise Dan (A), Seek Again (B), Grand Arch (C), Kaigun (D).

Shadwell Turf Mile Late Wagering Report

The $300,000 Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship                                

There was certainly plenty of back class in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship.

The Grade 1 stepping stone prep for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at none other than Santa Anita had not one, but two winners of 2013 Breeders’ Cup races in its small field of five.

Yet even though 40 percent of the field owned a Breeders’ Cup Trophy the victory went to a horse who last raced in Hong Kong.

In springing a 7.40-to-1 upset while racing for the first time since April, Rich Tapestry enjoyed a perfect trip. Jockey Olivier Doleuze saved ground in last as the other four slugged it out in front of him, then swung wide turning for home and collared 2013 BC Dirt Mile champ Goldencents to win by a nose.

Since the race mirrored the conditions of the upcoming BC Sprint, it certainly enhanced Rich Tapestry’s ranking among the top contenders at the world championships. Yet chances are he will not be the recipient of another dream trip, and he’ll probably have to work harder to prevail in a larger field.  

Instead, the one to watch from this race should be Goldencents, who rallied four wide on the turn and then forged to a clear lead in mid-stretch. While it’s disappointing that Rich Tapestry was able to rally inside him and catch him, Goldencents appeared to battle back in the final strides after being passed and almost stuck in his nose in front in the final bob.

While there are no payoffs in the win pool for “almost,” the Grade 1 stakes should be a perfect BC prep for Goldencents and we’ll place him on the Hot List’s “A” List as a preferred horse to watch.

While there were no significant shifts in the late wagering, we’ll also give defending BC Sprint champ Secret Circle a “B” for a promising effort in his first race in eight months. The son of Eddington battled for the lead from the rail but weakened in the final furlong and wound third, a length and three quarters behind Rich Tapestry. A year ago, Secret Circle was idle for 18 months then staged his comeback in allowance race less than three weeks before his BC Sprint triumph. Given those circumstances, it’s reasonable to expect another solid effort from the lightly raced 5-year-old, who had been no worse than second in his first 10 starts before the Sprint Championship.  

Hot List horses: Goldencents (A), Secret Circle (B)

Santa Anita Sprint Championship Late Wagering Report

The $500,000 Grade 1 Spinster Stakes                                 

October 5, Keeneland

By Bob Ehalt

The Spinster produced one of the most surprising Grade 1 results of the year, but not because second choice Don’t Tell Sophia emerged victorious.

The shock came from Close Hatches, the 1-5 favorite, not only losing, but finishing off the board.

Close Hatches was in the picture for Horse of the Year honors until her stunning setback at Keeneland, which came with no readily apparent excuses. Though pressed by Ria Antonia, the fractions were moderate and unless she loathed the racing surface, it’s hard to explain why she wound up losing by more than seven lengths.

A horse as good as Close Hatches figures to rebound from such a poor effort, but her disappointing try  came at an inopportune time since there’s a race against Beholder and Untapable at Santa Anita on the horizon. Even if she had romped in the Spinster, Close Hatches faced a tough challenge in tangling with Beholder in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff over a track where Beholder has already won two Breeders’ Cup races. Now, with just four weeks to recover, even the lure of better odds on Breeders’ Cup Day is not enough incentive to place Close Hatches on the Hot List as a horse to watch. 

At this point, it’s best to monitor her workouts and await a few sharps drill before jumping back on the bandwagon.

Don’t Tell Sophia earned her victory, but if she runs in the BC Distaff, it’s unlikely she’ll have as much success trying to catch Beholder, so there’s little interest in assigning her a letter.

The interesting horse coming out of the Spinster is Ria Antonia. The fact that she was able to run with Close Hatches, put her away, and then hang on for second indicates she’s finally put her Preakness debacle behind her. She’s run well at Santa Anita previously, winning last year’s BC Juvenile Fillies by disqualification and finishing second in the Santa Anita Oaks, and if she runs in the BC Distaff, she’s worth a spot on the “B” List as a horse who can figure in the exotics at a nice price.

European shipper Shuruq, Molly Morgan and the victorious Don’t Tell Sophia all dropped in the final minutes of wagering, but that was largely accountable to Close Hatches’ inevitable rise from 1-9 to 1-5 so we’ll pass on assigning them either a “C” or “D” on the Hot List.

Hot List horses: Ria Antonia (B)

Spinster Late Wagering Report

The $500,000 Frizette Stakes                      

October 4, at Belmont Park

By Shawn Rychling

A tremendous day of racing was on tap last Saturday at Belmont Park – and then the heavy rains came and turned the main track into a mud pit and forced several races off the turf, save for a Grade 3 event which went off with course listed as soft. 

Some wacky things can happen on an off track and we saw that in the Grade 1 Frizette for 2-year-old fillies.  After her romp in the slop in the Spinaway at Saratoga – made famous by Tom Durkin’s “Splashtastic” final race call of his career – Condo Commando figured as the most likely winner Saturday over another sloppy track.

But in a bid to prove that every track is different, Condo Commando did not flash a ton of early speed as she toiled over the Belmont surface while racing three-wide and a few lengths of the lead.

Up front, second choice Cavorting – a winner in both her previous starts – dueled with longshot By the Moon through a moderate half mile in just over 46 seconds. That’s when By the Moon began to assert herself.  She took the lead on the turn and edged away to lead by 3 lengths in mid-stretch and then cruised to victory.  Condo Commando tried to rally, but drifted out in the stretch and finished fourth.

By the Moon turned the tables on Condo Commando who had beaten her by 13 lengths in the Spinaway and earns a ‘B’ as it seems we can toss her last effort and use this one as a forward move off a sharp maiden win.

Cavorting gets an “A” even though she faded due to the track condition because we can disregard this one as a learning experience, and with the Bernardini breeding she should only improve going longer in a possible Breeders’ Cup start.

No horses earned letters as a result of late wagering action.

Hot List horses: Cavorting (A), By the Moon (B)

Frizette Late Wagering Report

The Hot List, founded by turf writer/handicapper Bob Ehalt in 2011, blends a detailed analysis of a race with late wagering trends to pick out the horses with the best chance of running a winning race in their next start. Hot List horses are rated in four lettered categories:

A : A preferred horse to watch off his effort in the race                   
B : A secondary horse to watch off his effort in the race                                   
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

For questions on the Hot List, email: nyhotlist@gmail.com