Tip of the Week: Forget About It

Gambling

Belle Gallantey rebounded off a dismal effort in the Personal Ensign to win the Grade 1 Beldame. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)

Coming off a 25-length loss generally does not point the way to a winner of a claiming race, much less a Grade 1 stakes.

Of course, sometimes a reasonable explanation can erase the blight of an ugly performance.

Belle Gallantey came into the $400,000 Grade 1 Beldame Stakes at Belmont Park after a 25 ¼-length loss in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign at Saratoga.

Two other starters in the Beldame also ran in the Personal Ensign and did significantly better than Belle Gallantey: Fiftyshadesofhay, who was second, and third-place finisher Stanwyck.

At first glance that would paint a gloomy picture for Belle Gallantey, except that the Personal Ensign was contested on a muddy track at the Spa. The 5-year-old mare usually shows early speed, but in the Personal Ensign she was no better than fourth at any of the calls, winding up a distant sixth in a field of seven.

It was a dismal performance, yet it was such a poor effort on a quirky racing surface that it could have been blamed on the wet track, even though she had won previously on off tracks. Suffice it to say, mud at Saratoga can be a unique experience and the lack of early speed smacked of her not handling the track.

Remove the 25 ¼-length loss to Close Hatches in the Saratoga mud from the mix and Belle Gallantey was a strong contender in the field of seven off her recent form – on a dry track. She posted 2 ¾-length win in the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap in her previous start. Before that she was fifth, beaten by just 1 ¾ lengths in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps, a gem of a race that featured the likes of Close Hatches, Princess of Sylmar and Beholder.

Off performances like that, it made sense that Belle Gallantey was a much better runner than a 25¼-length loss would indicate and that she could revert to top form in the Beldame.

Handicappers willing to forget the Personal Ensign and place their wagering dollars on Belle Gallantey on a fast track in the Beldame received a nice treat when she cruised to an 8 ¼-length triumph at 9-2 odds for an $11.40 payoff.

THE LESSON: When a horse in good form turns in a surprisingly weak effort, finding a reason for it, such as a wet track, can lead the way to a bounce back effort.

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