Hashtag Bourbon, above winning the Mountaineer Juvenile Stakes, is a top contender for Saturday's Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland Race Course. (Photo by Coady Photography) 

By Ellis Starr – National Racing Analyst for Equibase

The 101st running of the Grade 1, $500,000 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity brings together a field of 12 with aspirations of success. The race is part of the Fall Stars weekend at Keeneland Race Course, consisting of more than $3-million in graded stakes action and many Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” events. Leading the group in terms of accomplishments is Conquest Tsunami, winner of both the Victoria and Colin Stakes at Woodbine but one of seven in the field trying two turns for the first time. Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes runner-up Bold Conquest and third-place finisher Hashtag Bourbon both warrant a long look as contenders. North American leading trainer Todd Pletcher, whose runners always deserve consideration at this level, saddles Carpe Diem off a sharp win in his career debut

Contenders:

Hashtag Bourbon finished third in the Iroquois Stakes at the distance of the Breeders’ Futurity last month at Churchill Downs but that effort doesn’t tell the whole story. Hashtag Bourbon saved ground inside from the start but was completely boxed in behind a leader who was running as slowly as possible. When eager to run with about a half-mile to go, Hashtag Bourbon was still surrounded on all sides. He did get clear for some running room with just under an eighth of a mile to go, but by that time the winner and runner-up had drawn off and all Hashtag Bourbon could do was settle for third, earning a solid 84 Equibase Speed Figure. That was his first route (a mile or more) and his first two-turn race. Off that experience, with three excellent workouts on the new dirt surface at Keeneland coming into the race and with a jockey change to Julien Leparoux, Hashtag Bourbon has potential to rally past them all to win just as he did before the Iroquois when victorious in the Mountaineer Juvenile Stakes with a 94 figure.

HASHTAG BOURBON WAS DOMINANT AT MOUNTAINEER

Coady Photography

Bold Conquest also was making his first start in a route in the Iroquois and ran very well, making the lead with an eighth of a mile to go then battling the length of the stretch before coming up a neck short of the victory. Having improved from an 81 figure in his debut to 82 and then to 86 last time out, Bold Conquest also is reunited with jockey Rosie Napravnik, who was in the saddle for his only win. With improving to do in his second two-turn race, Bold Conquest would be no surprise if battling down to the finish line just as he did in his most recent effort. 

Carpe Diem must have looked like a million dollars when he entered the auction ring this past March, because when the hammer fell WinStar Farm paid $1.6-million for this colt. It’s no wonder really as all three foals out of his dam were winners, two of them stakes winners, including his half-brother [same dam (mother), different sire (father)] J. B.’s Thunder, who won the Breeders' Futurity in 2008. Trained by North American leading trainer by earnings, Todd Pletcher, Carpe Diem earned an 87 when winning last month in New York and, as a son of Giant’s Causeway, he has every right to improve with distance. He could be a strong factor and follow in his brother’s footsteps. 

Conquest Tsunami is probably the one the other 11 entrants have to catch to win, as he has led from start to finish in his last three races, two of them stakes. He earned 93, 90 and 96 Equibase Speed Figures in those three races including the Colin and Victoria Stakes in Canada, on turf and on the Polytrack all-weather surface. With a pair of excellent recent workouts on dirt at Churchill Downs appearing to answer the question of whether he can run as well on dirt, the only question remaining is whether Conquest Tsunami can carry his speed around two turns for the first time.

CONQUEST TSUNAMI IMPRESSED AT WOODBINE

Photo by Michael Burns/WEG

The rest of the field (with their best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Dekabrist (79), Firespike (74), Ike Walker (86), Keen Ice (84), Mr. Z (90), Sharm (75), Tough Customer (83) and W V Jetsetter (92).

My Selections:

Hashtag Bourbon

Bold Conquest

Carpe Diem

Conquest Tsunami

$500,000 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
Keeneland, Saturday, Race 8, Post Time 5:08 p.m. ET
1 1/16 miles, dirt, 2-year-olds